研究中心

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We expect to see a challenging quarter for steel makers when the ASP is lower and the demand is expected to be weak due to rainy season. The input prices are expected to increase and margins are expected to be slightly hit in 3Q23. 2Q23 total sales volume is in line with our forecast (6.0mn tonnes vs 6.1 tonnes – KIS forecast). We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 3Q23F due to rainy season. We forecast the total sales volume in 3Q23F will be 5.8mn tonnes +8% yoy, -9% qoq.

PAN reached the net revenue of VND2.8tn in 2022, fell by 12% yoy, met 35% of 2023 guidance. In which, seafood contributed 43%, agriculture contributed 42% and packaged foods contributed 15%. In 2H23, PAN’s management expected that high. Seafood segment recorded the increasing number of export orders since late-May, thus PAN expects sales to recover on the quarterly basis.demand of rice will enable high selling price of paddy seeds for the Summer-Autumn season. 2H23 is the peak season of confectionery sales with Mid-Autumn and Tet holiday preparation.

HAG reached the net revenue of VND1.5tn in 2Q23, which rose by 18% yoy and downed 15% qoq, the 6M23 accumulated revenue was VND3.1tn, upped 55% and met 62% of 2023 guidance. Net profit dropped by 62% yoy to VND102bn, mainly due to the increase by VND987bn of general and administration expenses compared to 2Q22. In which, HAG reversed the provision for trade receivables in 2Q22.

LTG reached the net revenue of VND3.7tn in 2Q23, which rose by 4% yoy and 50% qoq, the 6M23 accumulated revenue was VND6.1tn, +4% yoy. Revenue from rice in 6M23 contributed to 68% of total revenue, that increased 24% yoy, meanwhile plant production products (25% revenue) collapsed by 23% and seeds (5% sales) fell by 10%.

NPAT recorded a significant decline -81.1%yoy. The largest effect comes from the surge of interest expenses, which is VND206bn, +47.9%yoy right after Tan Thuan Phong 1 wind power plant started operating and stop capitalizing interest expenses. In addition to we forecast that interest expenses will remain high in 2H23. We still keep a BUY recommendation for GEG with target price 19,700 VND per share, upside 27.5% compared to market price on 30 July 2023.

A glimpse of relief is spreading on the air of the meeting given the U.S Securities and Exchange declared Vinfast’s F-4 in connection with the proposed business combination with Black Spade effective. Despite the GM loss of Vinfast segment (narrowed to 42.4% in 2Q23 vs -234.2% in 1Q23 and -225.3% in 2Q22, and the concern over the harsh competition from China and Tesla-brand EVs, the company insists on its capability to raise fund of USD300-400mn cash in the IPO and post listing out of USD2bn capex to build the Carolina factory.

On Jul 28, we tuned in to VRE’s 2Q23, and the presentation covered how the weather the storm of tightening retail consumption amid the inflation fear. VRE released the 2Q23 on Jul 28, featuring a VND2,172.8bn revenue (+17.5% yoy, +11.8% qoq) and a VND1,000.6bn NPAT (+29.4% yoy, -2.3% qoq). We selectively fancy VRE thanks to its earnings turnaround in 2023 which also is factored in the market expectation but we skeptically expect VRE could weather the storm. The decreasing demand for consumption is saw widely across the economic indicators.

HSG’ revenue decreased significantly 29.0% yoy to VND8,645bn in 3QFY23 driven mainly by the weak global and domestic demand. In which, the total export volume in 3QFY23 dropped to 183,665 tonnes, -20.2% yoy, but +43.9% qoq. The 3QFY23 NPAT posted VND14.2bn (-94.6% yoy).

HPG’ revenue decreased 21.2% yoy to VND29,496bn in 2Q23 while the NPAT posted VND1447.8bn (64%yoy). Thanks to the lower input costs, the gross margin improved from 6.3% in 1Q23 to 10.8% in 2Q23 amid lower ASP (construction steel ASP decreased by 4.5% compared to 1Q23).

MML reached the net revenue of VND1.7tn in 2Q23, which rose by 70% yoy, the 6M23 accumulated revenue was VND3.3tn, met 39% of 2023 guidance thanks to consolidated revenue of Masan Jinju since late 2022. MML made the loss of VND179bn after tax in 2Q23, less than the loss of VND211bn in 2Q22. In 2Q23, MML recorded the interest expenses of VND138bn, which increased 43% yoy and accounted to 71% of gross profit.