17
3月
The February performance witnessed the surprising comeback of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 20,524 tonnes (+40.4% mom, +110.4% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 15,380 tonnes (+32.9% mom and +31.9% yoy).
11
3月
On Mar 11, Tien Phong Securities (ORS) held the Annual general meeting. The company presented to us full-year 2021 results as well as the 2022F business plan. The company shared that 1Q22 PBT is estimated around VND300bn (+158% YoY), equivalent to 60% of 2022 full-year guidance and exceeding full-year 2021 number. Total bond value consulted by TPS in 2021 reached VND42,910bn (+237% YoY). Per management, investment banking or bond issuing consultants in specific continue to be the main pillar in the company’s strategy in 2022.
09
3月
In February 2022, seafood export value recorded USD635mn (+62% yoy and -27% mom), contributed by shrimp product with USD237mn (+51% yoy), pangasius product with USD171mn (+128% yoy). US market increased Vietnam seafood export value with USD146mn (+84% yoy). Export value revived in China market to USD91mn (+135% yoy).
08
3月
In Nov 2021, electricity production was 20.71bn kWh (+3.9% yoy, +2.1% mom). Hydropower output was slightly down 2.9% mom to 8.55bn kWh but increased 11% yoy thanks to La Nina effects. The output of gas thermal and coal-fired power was down yoy due to the rising price of input material.
07
3月
Based on our collection, the 4Q21 aggregate earnings momentum of 26 listed Oil & gas companies on three bourses recovered from the bottom of 3Q21 due to gloomy demand in the lockdown period. Net profit growth decelerated to 33% yoy in 4Q21 from the peak of 1Q21. Overall, 2021 outcome was eventually splendid with a 172% yoy net profit and 30% yoy revenue growth.
01
3月
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 22 listed pharmaceutical companies fell by 25.2% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI slightly inched up by 6.7% yoy. We believe there will be plenty of room for growth for the pharmaceutical sector in 1Q22F mainly due to (1) revenue through ETC increases when the filed hospitals take back their capacity; (2) demand is rising as people tend to store medicine in order to prevent Omicron variant and deal with “post” COVID diseases; (3) opportunity is coming from franchising the COVID-19 treatment drugs production progress.
01
3月
4Q21 business result of the company recorded the highest numbers in many aspects. Total revenue was VND2,423bn (+38.6% qoq) and PAT was VND 998bn (+46.2% qoq). In 2021, there were 3 consecutive quarters started from 2Q21 that the company broke its high record in terms of revenue and profit. Brokerage revenue was pegged high due to 1) superior liquidity in the last quarter of 2021 and 2) the company’s effort in grasping brokerage market share. The margin loan balance at the end-Dec 2021 of SSI was VND22.7tn (+25.6% qoq), a significant increase in percentage and absolute number. The margin ratio was up by 10% to 160%. Currently, SSI is trading at price VND46,000, PE 16.4x and PB 3.1x.
28
2月
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in Jan, fertilizer export volume rose significantly to reach 370,000 tonnes (+192% yoy and +147% mom), while the export value grew strongly to USD299mn (+682% yoy and +172% mom), mainly due to the increase in global selling prices. On average, the export price was USD808/tonne (+170 yoy and +10% mom) in Jan.
28
2月
In 4Q21, 24 top listed seafood exporters reached VND13,862bn (-2.2% yoy) in 4Q21. Of which, revenue of listed pangasius exporters surged by +7.6% yoy in 4Q21 and revenue of listed shrimp exporter decreased by -12.4% yoy, mainly by the deceleration of MPC 4Q21 performance, accounting for largest revenue contribution in listed exporters with 21%, by VND2,931bn (-32.7% yoy).
28
2月
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 23 listed hydropower companies jumped 22.5% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI increased by 32.9% yoy. Due to the waning effect of La Nina in the north, EVN will shift its focus to coal thermal plants to ensure power supply. The HFO Singapore, a reference for gas price supplied to domestic gas-fired power plants could spike in 1Q22F due to supply shortage and Russia – Ukraine tension. We think EVN will prioritize the cheaper coal-fired power plants driven by their lower than gas supply price. Thus, we expect the revenue of coal-fired plants stays solid than gas-fired firms in 1Q22F.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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