19
5月
The April performance witnessed the growth in export volume on year-on-year basis, helping export channel to remain as the key growth driver in 4M22. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 19,331 tonnes (-18.2% mom, -35.3% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 13,756 tonnes (-16.5% mom and -35.3% yoy).
19
5月
The April performance witnessed the weak domestic demand for construction steel. The 4M22 performance witnessed the revival in domestic market, however, the high steel price slowed down the revival pace in April.
19
5月
HSG witnessed the slightly weaker performance in FY7M2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 4 months of 2022. Total Apr steel sales volume posted 175,144 tonnes, increasing by 9.7% mom but decreasing by 18.2% yoy.
18
5月
Food and beverage consumption recovered continually in 1Q22, albeit to a different level in each sector. Gross margin (GM) of the dairy sector narrowed in 4Q21 due to weak growth of the selling price could not offset the strong rise of input material prices. The dairy sector’s GM subdued by 2.8%p yoy while VNM’s GM plunged strongly by 3.1%p yoy in 1Q22 due to imported milk powder prices raised sharply by 30-40% yoy in 1Q22. On the other hand, the beer sector gross margin expanded by 1.7%p yoy to 27% in 1Q22. SAB’s GM improved by 0.6%p yoy in 1Q22 due to high APS although raw material prices such as aluminum and malting barley hiked. Reopening fully all industries to prompt household incomes to continue to grow in 2Q22F, thus, F&B companies could increase selling prices more easily to offset the spike in raw materials. Therefore, we expect an expanding gross margin in 2Q22F for dairy and brewing listed companies due to cooling commodity prices and fully benefit from higher selling prices.
18
5月
Total consumption volume edged up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery. 1Q22 aggregate revenue of 38 listed power makers jumped 16.3% yoy, while NPAT post-MI hiked 69.9% in which hydropower was bright star. Input material such as Newcastle coal & Singapore fuel oil prices spiked 187% yoy and 49% yoy. Many coal-fired power operated under their capacities when the ability of Vinacomin to supply enough coal for power plants in 2Q22F is still unknown. Thus, we believe hydropower makers will be the biggest beneficiaries in 2Q22F.
18
5月
According to Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV) published 3M22 market firgures on May 16th 2022. Total insurance premium accumulated in 1Q22 was pegged VND58,485bn (+14.6% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 14.7% to VND 17,082bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 14.6% to VND38,403bn.
16
5月
In Apr 2022, electricity production was 22.6bn kWh (-3.5% mom, +1.9% yoy). Hydropower is the biggest beneficiary (+26.7% yoy) in the context of rising fuel oil and coal prices, coupled with tight coal supplies when coal and gas thermal power output sharply plunged. Vinacomin pledged to compensate the not-yet-delivered 1Q22 contracted coal volume in the remaining quarters, equivalent to 0.8mn tonnes. It promised to supply enough coal in 2Q22 to EVN’s power plants while the total value of imported coal reached its peak.
13
5月
On May 12, we participated in NVL’s analyst meetings which briefs the presale growth, sales plan and the bottlenecks in credit quota for homebuyers’ mortgage. While we are still upbeat about the unrivaled monetization of NVL’s blockbuster land bank in satellite cities, we could not be relieved of its relentlessly rising net debt. Furthermore, the credit unavailability allocated to developers and homebuyers not only hinders the homebuyers’ purchase decisions but also jeopardise NVL’s fund demand to pay due debts. Give
12
5月
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 1Q22, we saw aggregated revenue growth persisted with double digits while NPATMI growth was muted due to the higher base seen in 1Q21 and thinner yoy gross margin marred by input cost inflation. In 2Q22, we expect to see a slower pace in domestic demand revival in 2Q22F due to the sharp steel price rise in 4M22. The temporary global economic weakness caused by COVID-19 restrictions in China eased the prices of steel products and some input materials. Therefore, companies, especially flat steel exporters, can consider the temporary decline as an opportunity for lower-cost inventories.
11
5月
On May 10, we tuned in to 1Q22 VNM’s analyst meeting which features its 1Q22 operational updates and sheds some lights on rebounding revenue and expanding gross margin. VNM pegged domestic market revenue at 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) contributed by parent’s domestic revenue growth of 3.5% yoy (VND10,234bn) and MCM’s revenue growth of 8.6% yoy (VND675bn) in 1Q22. The company stockpiled raw materials until Aug at a costlier price. Given the prices of imported milk powder forward contracts are cooling down, VNM expects to benefit at least from 3Q22F. We maintain a HOLD rating underpinned by a sluggish outlook in 2022F-23F
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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