15
11月
Revenue of ICT/Jewelry/Automobile/Airport retailers in 3Q22 respectively surged by 35.3%/700%/176%/700% yoy driven by the recover from extreme closure during the lockdown in 3Q21. Retailers and retail lessors are hectic preparing for the largest sale season in the year, including the Single Day 11/11, Black Friday 25/11 and Christmas 24/12.
15
11月
In 3Q22, hydropower generators’ revenue and NPAT-MI went up 58% yoy and 126% yoy thanks to La Nina. The coal and input gas prices in 2023F are projected to slow down compared to the towering price in 2022. Coupled with the waning La Nina, we believe that EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.
15
11月
Breweries led F&B’s revenue and earnings growth in 3Q22, the aggregated revenue and earnings growth of 14 listed brewery producers accelerated sharply in 3Q22 compared to a low base in 3Q21. The revenue accelerated to 84% yoy compared to 21.9% yoy in 2Q22. Besides, beer producers achieved brisk net profit growth of 160% yoy compared to 60.6% yoy in 2Q22.
15
11月
In Sep and Oct 2022, hydropower output surged 17% yoy thanks to La Nina effect. Coal-fired power volume dropped to 14.9bn kWh (-6% yoy) owing to surging global coal price (+105% yoy) and tight coal supply. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023F, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.
10
11月
Based on the General Department of Customs, the prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment in October grew only 0.7% yoy and dropped 0.8% mom to USD2.7bn. In October 2022, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell -14% yoy, but lifted 3.6% mom, accounting for 37.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 10M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 21.5% yoy to nearly USD31.7bn.
09
11月
The revenue growth rate of listed pangasius leaped 68% yoy while shrimp exporters inched 6.5% yoy. Meanwhile, the listed pangasius and shrimp exporters' revenue recorded 14.2% qoq and 5.7% qoq export decreases, especially the top tiers, which slowed down quickly after a significant bullish in 2Q22. Despite the upward trend of seafood exporters slowed down in 3Q22, we maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating since we believe that the seafood industry rally is persisting through 4Q22F backed by sound business conditions.
09
11月
In Oct, according to the Customs, total fertilizer export volume was 160,219 tonnes (-16% mom, +60% yoy), equivalent to USD88mn (-19% mom, +109% yoy). Vietnam imported nearly 322,000 tonnes of fertilizer (+29% mom, +7% yoy), equivalent to USD154mn (+52% mom, +35% yoy). Based on data we collected, in Sep, urea accounted for about 34% of total fertilizer imported (about 86,000 tonnes), followed by NPK with 28% (about 69,000 tonnes).
08
11月
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We continue to see the low demand in 4Q22F as bond and property industry issues and interest rate upward pressure for forex control purpose will hinder the consumption demand from end-use buyers.
08
11月
PET’s 3Q22 revenue increased by 17% yoy to VND4.5tn mainly driven by merchandise distribution revenue growth of 22% yoy to VND4tn. In 9M22, PET’s revenue rose by 12% yoy to VND12.8tn (fulfilling 64% of full-year guidance), mainly driven by greater sales of smartphones that grew by 16.2% yoy to VND4.8tn. GM improved to 5.6%, +0.5%p yoy in 9M22 thanks to better price discount from suppliers. NPAT slightly rose by 2% yoy to VND177bn, fulfilling 53% of the full-year guidance. We attribute the slower NPAT growth to the allowance of VND166bn for security investment, equal to the temporary loss of 48% from security investment as of end-3Q22.
08
11月
This quarter’s top line recorded VND1,367bn (-22% qoq, -16% yoy) which was hit by decreases of all income sources from FVTPL gain, brokerage, IB and margin lending. The operating expenses stayed flat qoq but financial expenses ramped up by 38.4% qoq and 256% yoy. As a result, net profit was hit significantly, downed to VND42bn (-91% qoq, -93% yoy). As of Nov 7, VND is trading at market price of VND10,450, equal to 0.93x TTM PB. Current valuation is lower than 3-year average PB of 1.68x and median PB of 1.53x and approaching -1 SD milestone at around 0.86x.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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