研究中心

On April 24, Vicem Ha Tien Cement (HT1) held the Annual General Meeting. The company presented full-year 2022 results as well as the FY2023F business plan. The BOD expects that cement industry will be improved while demand is still sluggish in the first 6 months due to the negative impact of property and bond markets.

The company revealed that 1Q23 NPAT strongly slumped by 81.5% yoy and 78.8% qoq to about VND10bn due to the low consumption of luxury cars. 1Q23 earnings were contributed mainly by services segment

On April 24, we attended VHM’s 1Q23, and the presentation covered how the “King” surprised the market expectation. VHM rocked the market with its 1Q23 record net profit up to VND11.9tn, +152.4% yoy buffered by the revenue growth of 228.3% yoy (VND29.3tn). - Despite the rumor that Capital Land is seeking for a USD1.5bn transaction deal with Vinhomes going viral since Jan, VHM is still keeping it a mistery and not ready to comment about of it. Retaining BUY rating and reviewing the earnings prospect.

On April 22, we attended HQC’s 2023 AGM, and the presentation covered how the conglomerate achieves its dream. Building the hope on the simulative packages from the banks, licensing agencies, the company aims a VND140bn net profit of controlling interest, +6.4x yoy driven by a VND1,700bn revenue, 5.2x yoy. Notably, HQC several times proposes the revenue of thousand billion and net profit of hundred billion but fails as well. For example, HQC only fulfilled 31/11% of their revenue/net profit guidance at VND333.2/18.8bn.

On April 22, we attended NLG’s 2023 AGM, and the presentation was largely centered on how the company launches their sales targets. Contrary to a VND13.8tn revenue of and a VND1.9tn NPATMI of 2023F proposed in 2022 AGM, the company aims a VND586bn net profit of controlling interest, +5.3% yoy driven by a VND4.8tn revenue, 11.5% yoy. The company also set to contribute 20,000 units of affordable housing segment out of total 1,000,000 units zoned in the government master plan in 2025-2030F

Nam Viet recorded VND1,155bn (-5.3% yoy and +1% qoq) and VND92bn (-55.5% yoy and -13% qoq) in 1Q23. Despite pangasius export in total declining due to the low demand in most market, ANV focus on exporting to Chinese market, increasing exported volume by 500% yoy and 60% qoq to this market. Compared company target, ANV fulfills 22.2%/21.6% of 2023 revenue and EBIT.

The company targets a VND20,000bn revenue and a VND400bn EBT. In 1Q23, NKG made a loss of around VND50bn while the revenue is around VND4,300-4,400bn, according to the BOD. The BOD expects 2Q23 will be the turnaround, bringing the 1H23 profit to be positive.

In 1Q23, Vinh Hoan posted VND2,222bn revenue (-32% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by 39.4% yoy of the pangasius export segment. Vinh Hoan’s 1Q23 NPAT posted VND225bn (-59.2% yoy), plunged by lower net margin -6.8% yoy. Overall, 1Q23 business result of Vinh Hoan was in-line with our estimates mentioned and fulfill 18.3%/9.2% of our 2023 revenue/NPAT estimates.

On Apr 18, we attended AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. What we feel is vague lies in the right issuance plan up to a VND600bn receipt in 2H23F to refinance or shore up the working capital demand for Chau Duc industrial /real estate. Given the abundant cash balance and flattish yoy growth of net profit in 2023, we think the trade of the diluted share risk for investment growth prospect is not justified. Based on management's guidance of 2023F profit, 12MF PE of 15.3 times trailed the 2-year median of 15.1x, higher than the average TTM VNINDEX of 9-11x. We believe this premium is not reasonable in light of its flattish net profit growth and risky net gearing.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 107,020 tonnes, dropping by 33.0% yoy but increasing 4.7% mom. Steel coat volume made up 80.8% of the Mar total sales volume at 86,505 tonnes, +2.7% mom but -28.4% yoy.