研究中心

Total Apr steel sales volume posted 535,640 tonnes, decreasing by 14.7% yoy and 5.6% mom. The 4M23 total finished-product sale volume dropped significantly to 2,117,172 tonnes, -30.7% yoy. Of which, all products sale volume declined due to high base in 2022.

In April, MWG recorded a 20% increase m/m in revenue to VND9,700bn of which TGDD/DMX revenue was up 30% m/m due to a strong increase in air conditions sales and BHX revenue increased 3% m/m, reaching VND1.35bn per store per month. Per management, MWG gains market shares in cellphone & electric appliance fields due to a price-competitive strategy and they continue to pursue this price-competitive strategy for a long period, it is not a campaign.

Breweries dragged down F&B’s revenue growth in 1Q23. The beer revenue went down yoy and qoq due to tighten alcohol testing in traffic and weak purchasing power amid an economic slowdown. We expect the consumption of beer and dairy will continue to face the challenge in the 2Q23F However, we expect the gross margins of listed dairy and beer companies to improve continuously qoq in 2Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices.

According to Customs, in Apr, total fertilizer export volume was 131,913 tonnes (-11.5% yoy, +4.2% mom), equivalent to USD48mn (-52.9% yoy, -12.7% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Apr was 153,200/385,500 tonnes (-22.7%/+47.5% yoy, -27.3%/+22.7% mom), respectively. Overall, Apr fertilizer production was 654,200 tonnes (+7.2% mom). +13.1% yoy). The Apr urea domestic market price was trading at around VND9,500/kg (-1.0% mom, -45.7% yoy and -22% YTD).

This quarterly earnings report on the Vietnam cement industry is intended to track the earning growth trend in the cement market. We witnessed a slump in earnings in 1Q23. High-cost input was mainly attributed to the negative aggregated profit. We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 2Q23F as construction activities are expected to be impacted by recent economic issues. As for export, we see the q-o-q improvement in the main export market – China, however, not significant. Companies' margins are expected to improve in 2Q23F thanks to lower input cost.

We tuned in to HDB’s analyst meeting on May 9 which featured the strategical visibility on the group and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. HDB’s 1Q23 consolidate net profit slightly increased to VND2,194 (+8.6%YoY). 1Q23 Consolidated NPL slightly edged up to 1.8% (1Q22: 1.6% and 4Q22: 1.7%). However, the NPL was still below the 2023 target of 2%. 1Q23 consolidated NIM was 5.1%, lower than 4Q22’s 5.2% but higher than 1Q22’s 4.8%.

According to Customs, in Apr, total fertilizer export volume was 131,913 tonnes (-11.5% yoy, +4.2% mom), equivalent to USD48mn (-52.9% yoy, -12.7% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Apr was 153,200/385,500 tonnes (-22.7%/+47.5% yoy, -27.3%/+22.7% mom), respectively. Overall, Apr fertilizer production was 654,200 tonnes (+7.2% mom). +13.1% yoy). The Apr urea domestic market price was trading at around VND9,500/kg (-1.0% mom, -45.7% yoy and -22% YTD).

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We witnessed a turn-around of earnings in 1Q23. Although the turn-around was mainly attributed by the reversal of inventories provision, high-cost inventories pressure was believed to be fully relieved. We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 2Q23F but slight improvement compared to 1Q23. We forecast the total sales volume in 2Q23F will be 6.1mn tonnes -6% yoy, +10% qoq.

This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped-up note of listed Vietnamese textile producers based on their financial statements. In line with 4Q22, the 1Q23 revenue growth of listed garment companies continuously declined 22.8% yoy and earnings growth dropped further by -71.4% yoy 1Q23. Inventory levels at major foreign retailers like Nike and Adidas have increased since 2H22, which together with slow consumption led to a decrease in orders. That high inventories will unlikely to solve in 2Q23F and the recovery in the orders is hard to happen.

We initiate Neutral rating on Cement industry. In 2023F, despite the reverse of 2022 negative factors, we still see some challenges for the industry amid high-borrowing rate environment and issues related to real estate developers and bond markets. Besides, the demand of global and main export markets are forecasted to be flat in 2023F. Along with it, the new tax rate on clinker export would hinder the revival of export channel. China re-opening is supposed to be a good catalyst for Vietnam cement producers, however, we still have HOLD ratings on HT1 and BCC as we see the market prices are fully reflected the revival outlook of these companies.