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14
7月
Market commentary: Cautious market
The selling pressure appears at a high level, which means the downtrend is dominant in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
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13
7月
Market commentary: Bullish Reversal?
Despite the strong rebound, the downtrend is dominant in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
12
7月
Fundflow 04 – 08 Jul: Inflow starts to recover
Market ended up to be net sold. Selling pressure was mainly absorbed by Real Estate, Materials, and Utilities whilst demand was attracted by Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam recovered. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the demand on VFMVN Diamond and Fubon FTSE.
12
7月
Market commentary: Retest last bottom
The downtrend is dominant in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
11
7月
Chart of the day: Confirm bearish market again
In the short term, the downtrend is dominant because of the trending indicator and low liquidity.
11
7月
Market commentary: Rebound
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
08
7月
Market commentary: Bullish piercing pattern
Bullish piercing appears on the VNIndex, implying a bullish signal. However, the downtrend is dominated in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
07
7月
Market commentary: A new bottom
Based on the new low, the market sentiment has become pessimistic. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
07
7月
Strategic Insight: A big bull?
Economic activities remain strong in the second quarter with an unexpectedly high growth rate due to the fruitful trade and recovering domestic consumption. Given this momentum, we predict that Vietnam’s economy to accelerate in the next quarter. However, the recession would possibly lower economic performance than expected through the global value chain transmission. For Vietnam stock market, we expect that the VNIndex would form a new trough thanks to solid macro indicators and the analysis of cycles and patterns of the VNIndex. Accordingly, the index would possibly reach the threshold of 1,300-1,400 points in 3Q22.
06
7月
Market commentary: High selling pressure
Market sentiment has become cautious because of the second contraction. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal. Besides, traders should watch the double bottom pattern as the levels of the two last bottoms are the same.
Featured Articles
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.