09
9月
Market commentary: Confirm breakdown?
Based on the second losing session, the downtrend may confirm in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for next signals.
09
9月
Based on the second losing session, the downtrend may confirm in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for next signals.
08
9月
The FTSE Vietnam Index will remove KDH and SBT and not add any ticker in the 3Q22. Based on data as of 07 Sep 2022, we expect that FTSE Vietnam ETF will sell HPG, VRE, and STB the most with 7.3 million shares, 6.2 million shares and 4.1 million shares. On the buy-side, VND, VNM, and NVL will be bought heavily with 6.6 million shares, 3.9 million shares, and 3.7 million shares. The new weights will be effective on 16 Sep 2022.
08
9月
The VNIndex shows the breakdown because the index closes below the 1,250-pts threshold with high volume. That means a bearish signal, implying a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for next signals.
07
9月
The uptrend is still intact in the short term as the VNIndex closes above the significant moving averages. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
06
9月
Despite the slowdown in the uptrend, the VNIndex still maintains the bullish market in the short term. In this case, investors could hold long positions on leading stocks but margin trading should be avoided due to the medium-term bearish swing.
06
9月
Despite the contraction, the uptrend is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
31
8月
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Real Estate, and Materials whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Consumer Staples and Energy. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested. However, the divestment was not significant and the outflow was mainly driven by the selling pressure on VFMVN Diamond and VFMVN30.
29
8月
Despite the contraction, the short-term uptrend is still intact. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
29
8月
Although the rebound phase is active, minor correction has high probability to occur. In this case, investors could increase the current position on leading stocks when 1,250 pts area is retested. However, margin level should be kept at low level.
26
8月
In the short term, the VNIndex shows the bullish market thanks to the Bullish Engulfing pattern. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.