01
2月
Although the high demand is around the 1,100-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact. If the index closes below the support, the uptrend is reversed. Therefore, traders should wait for the confirmed signals before resuming open long positions.
31
1月
The VNIndex retests the 1,100-pts threshold, pushing downside risk increase. If the index closes below the support, the uptrend is reversed. Therefore, traders should wait for the confirmed signals before resuming open long positions.
30
1月
The VNIndex closes above the 1,100-pts threshold, implying the bullish market. Therefore, traders should open long positions with small size.
11
1月
In the short term, the downside risk is still intact due to cautious market sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
06
1月
Based on the third bullish session, the downside risk is reduced, implying a bullish trend in the short term. However, the selling pressure at a 1,100-pts threshold is still intact. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
05
1月
Based on the second recovery, the downside risk is reduced as the index crossed up the 20-period moving average, implying a bullish trend in the short term. However, the selling pressure at a high level is still intact. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
04
1月
Based on the strong recovery, the downside risk is reduced in the short term as the index crossed up the 20-period moving average. However, the selling pressure at a high level is still intact. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
03
1月
There is the strong supply near 1,100 pts zone as well as 1,050 pts zone is downward pierced. Therefore, investors should reduce the positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
03
1月
The downside risk is intact in the short term because of low liquidity. That means a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
30
12月
Although the VNIndex still closes above the 1,000-pts threshold, the downside risk is intact because of low liquidity. That means a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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