10
4月
Chart of the day: Need more bullish signals
The VNIndex needs more bullish signals to confirm the uptrend because the signals lose consensus.
10
4月
The VNIndex needs more bullish signals to confirm the uptrend because the signals lose consensus.
05
4月
After the VNIndex rises for the ninth consecutive gaining session, the VNIndex shows an uptrend in the short term. Therefore, traders may open small long positions. However, the selling pressure appears at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should be careful if the market shows negative.
05
4月
Foreign demand slowed down whilst selling pressure stayed at high level, pushing the market to ended up to be net sold. Net sell value was USD6mn. With ETF flow, the inflow has been active across Vietnam for 4 consecutive weeks as well as demand stayed at high level. Inflow was USD14mn. Although there was the active inflow, demand focused only on Fubon ETF whilst other major ETFs such as VFMVN30 ETF, VFMVN Diamond, VNFin Lead, and KIM Growth VN30 ETF, FTSE Vietnam experienced the outflow or the insignificant flow of money.
31
3月
Although the VNIndex closes above the 1,050-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
30
3月
The VNIndex closes above the 1,050-pts threshold for 3rd consecutive gaining session, however, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
29
3月
Although the VNIndex closes above the 1,050-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
29
3月
Foreign demand continued to outweigh supply. Net buy value was USD17mn. With ETF flow, the inflow has come back across Vietnam as well as demand kept increasing. Inflow was USD27mn, tripled the previous week. Although there was the active inflow, demand focused only on Fubon ETF whilst other major ETFs such as VFMVN30 ETF, VFMVN Diamond, VNFin Lead, and KIM Growth VN30 ETF, FTSE Vietnam experienced the outflow or the insignificant flow of money.
28
3月
The VNIndex loses consensus, showing the sideways. The index needs a breakout or breakdown to confirm the next trend.
28
3月
The VNIndex shows the bullish signals as crossing the 1,050-pts for the five gaining sessions in a row. However, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
23
3月
Despite the second recovery, the VNIndex retests 1,050-pts threshold, showing a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.