14
2月
Foreign demand has slowed down but the market kept ending up to be net bought. With ETF flow, inflow across Vietnam kept decreasing, recording at USD9mn, a 4-month low. Inflow across Vietnam has slowed down for 2 consecutive weeks as well as inflow has not spread to major ETFs which is the sign of weakness. Thus, there is the high probability for outflow to occur in upcoming weeks
07
2月
The market ended up to be net bought with net buy value recorded at USD78mn (-28.9% wow). Particularly, market demand concentrated the most on Materials due to large buy orders on HPG. With ETF flow, the flow of money across Vietnam plummeted compared to the previous trading week with net inflow was USD26mn (-63% wow), driven by the strong demand on Diamond, VFMVN30 ETF, and X FTSE Vietnam.
15
11月
Market ended up to be net bought. Real Estate, Financials, and Consumer Staples, focusing on KDH, VHM, SSI, VND, BID, DGC, and VNM. With ETF flow, inflow remained at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD76mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on Fubon.
08
11月
Foreign selling pressure cooled. Net sell value was USD22mn. Selling activity was mainly absorbed by Materials, Financials, and Real Estate, focusing on HPG, KBC, VIC, and HDB whilst demand concentrated the most on FUESSVFL and such sectors as Consumer Staples and Real Estate, mainly driven by large buy orders on VNM, DGC, VHM and KDH. With ETF flow, inflow surged at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD32mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on Finlead, Diamond and Fubon.
01
11月
Selling pressure surged. Net sell value was USD155mn. selling activity was mainly absorbed by Financials, Real Estate, and Materials, focusing on EIB, VND, STB, KBC, VHM, VIC, and HPG whilst demand kept flowing to Consumer Staples and Industrials, mainly driven by large buy orders on MSN, VNM, GMD, HDG, and IDC. With ETF flow, inflow remained at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD17mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on VanEck and Fubon.
25
10月
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand mainly spread to Consumer Staples, Financials and Materials, focusing on VNM, MSN, VCB, CTG, DPM and DCM. foreign selling activity was mainly absorbed by Materials and Real Estate focusing on HPG, VHM, NVL, DXG, KDH and VIC. With ETF flow, inflow remained at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD18mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on VanEck and Diamond.
18
10月
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand mainly spread to Consumer Staples, Materials, and Financials, focusing on DGC, VNM, MSN, HPG, DPM, DCM, SSI, and CTG. Besides, Real Estate also turned around to be net bought thanks to large buy orders on NLG. With ETF flow, inflow remained at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD12mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on VanEck and Fubon.
20
9月
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, inflow has come back to Vietnam after experiencing three consecutive weeks of outflow. The inflow was mainly driven by the slowdown of outflow on VFMVN Diamond as well as demand also spread to other major ETFs.
16
9月
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Real Estate, and Industrials whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested. However, the divestment was not significant and the outflow was mainly driven by the selling pressure on VFMVN30 and VFMVN Diamond.
31
8月
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Real Estate, and Materials whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Consumer Staples and Energy. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested. However, the divestment was not significant and the outflow was mainly driven by the selling pressure on VFMVN Diamond and VFMVN30.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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