01
3月
Vietnam's economy continues to be on a growth track during the reopening progress with trade and manufacturing sectors remaining the main growth drivers. What worries us for now is the uneven economic recovery as domestic consumption is in weakness after months since the reopening, which is less than our expectation.
08
2月
In January 2022, long-holiday effects caused economic recovery to temporarily slow down from the impressive recovery since 4Q21. Export activity decelerated from a record high last month, especially in highly FDI-concentrated areas. The seasonality also impacted labor-intensive industries in the industrial sector, limiting its high-growth momentum in the previous period. However, those seasonal effects are only short-lived, and the economy is expected to return to a high-growth track in the upcoming months.
26
1月
The impressive rebound of Vietnam’s economy in 4Q21 creates momentum for further economic recovery in 2022. We expect the following sectors to be key growth pillars for the economy: (1) robust and stable industrial growth thanks to secured production activity and increased export demand; (2) pent-up demand in domestic spending in the reopening phase; (3) strong recovery in capital investment, primarily driven by investment demand from government and FDI. Last but not least, the upcoming fiscal - monetary support program will further push the economy back to the high-growth track in 2022.
07
1月
After a severe contraction in 3Q21, Vietnam's economy has successfully backed into the pre-pandemic growth track in the fourth quarter. It is visible that the main growth drivers for 4Q21 are from the manufacturing and export areas when these sectors have a phenomenal run in the reopening phase. Meanwhile, marked recovery in retail sales in the last two months also eases some pressure on the economic growth. These developments lay a strong foundation for the economic outlook in the next year.
07
1月
Corporate bond offerings slumped to VND26.9tn, -53% mom, -3.2% yoy in Nov, prompting to VND547.2tn, +52.1% yoy in 11M21. Commercial banks and security firms subscribed 27.4%/36.3% in Nov, and 28%/42% in 11M21. Since commercial banks constituted 33% of total Real Estate bond subscription and 70% of total Real Estate bond offerings aimed to refinance, to leveraged buyout, and expand, we estimate a 20-21% of total bond issuance could be hit by this circular 16.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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