24
8月
The stock market experiences a significant decrease in session with low liquidity, showing investors’ caution sentiment. Besides, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals.
22
8月
The stock market increases slightly during the session with liquidity records at a normal level. Despite the recoveries, the downside is present as the bearish market is confirmed before. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals.
21
8月
Although the downtrend is not confirmed, the current bullish swing has been completely paused. Thus, long positions on leading stocks should be closed by half until there is the accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
21
8月
The stock market experiences the deepest decline of the year session with record-high liquidity. Furthermore, the VNIndex also closes below the important resistance level of the 1,200-pts threshold, indicating a bearish signal. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios. The next time, if the market appears recovery sessions, investors should be careful with their investment decisions. Because the systematic risk is at a high level and more probability it is a Bull Trap. Overall, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
18
8月
The stock market decreases strongly with improved liquidity, showing selling pressure is significantly intensified during the session. However, the VNIndex maintains to close above both the important support level of 1,200-pts and the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
17
8月
The stock market experiences a significant gain's day driven mainly by demand on the large-caps stocks. Moreover, the uptrend is still positive as the VNIndex remains end above the important support level of 1,200 pts. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
15
8月
The VNIndex displays strong bullish sentiment with a medium-term uptrend, supported by 100- and 200-day moving averages. However, consolidation phase is possible due to high valuation and selling pressure.
15
8月
The market increases slightly during the session with high liquidity, indicating inflow is still positive. Furthermore, the VNIndex maintains to end above the important support level of 1,200 pts. In the short term, this index has retested the previous resistance level of the 1,240-pts threshold. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
10
8月
The stock market decreases significantly during the session with liquidity at a high level, showing the investors’ caution sentiment is still present. However, the VNIndex remains to end above the important support level of 1,200 pts. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
09
8月
The stock market moves in the narrow range around the reference point while the liquidity remains at a high level, indicating the ongoing tug-of-war between buying and selling activities. However, the uptrend is still positive as the VNIndex maintains close above the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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