20
4月
HSG witnessed the slightly weaker performance in FY6M2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 3 months of 2022: 3M2022 total sales volume at 461,334 tonnes, -22.6% yoy. 3M2022 export volume dropped significantly by 44.1% yoy to 197,256 tonnes, which is the main reason for weaker performance in FY6M2022 while 3M2022 domestic total sales volume increased 8.5% yoy to 264,075 tonnes.
20
4月
On April 19, Novaland held Annual General Meeting which gave the audience a walkthrough of the 2022F business expansion plan. Despite being missed the 2021 guidance at 54.2%/84.4% of revenue and NPATMI, NVL still set up prosperous targets with a VND35.9tn revenue, +141% yoy and a VND3.5tn NPAT, +88% yoy. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 45.7 times and 12MF PB is 4.2 times, significantly higher than the 1-year median PE of 35.5x but slightly lower than PB of 4.5x.
18
4月
The company targets a VND2,005bn revenue (+11%) and VND250bn net profit (+38% yoy) in 2022F. LCG will pay 2021’s stock dividend at 10% and plans to pay 2022F’s cash dividend of 12% at par. In 1Q22, the company announced preliminary revenue and PAT are VND177bn (-62% yoy) and VND51bn (-10%), respectively. It also set the new prioritized business lines from 2022F-2025F, including: transportation infrastructure, renewable energy and real estate.
18
4月
The company targets a USD178mn revenue, +120% yoy and a VND10.8mn NPAT, +188% yoy in 2022F, 15% stock dividend for 2021, expected to pay in June this year. In 1Q22, the company reached a USD47.3mn revenue, +19% yoy, and a USD3mn NPAT, +17% yoy, fulfilling 26.6%/27.7% full-year estimates.
18
4月
GAS sets 2022F guidance of VND80tn revenue (+1% yoy), and VND8.8tn PBT (-21.4% yoy), the plan is based on the scenario of Brent oil at USD60. In 1Q22, the company announced preliminary revenue and PBT are VND25.3tn (+44% yoy) and above VND3tn (+13.8% yoy), respectively, per management. GAS estimates gas sales volume is 1.9bn m3 in 1Q22.
18
4月
3Q23 net profit grew +3.4%qoq and -13%yoy to VND5,843bn mainly due to higher operating expenses (+20.5%yoy, CIR: from 29% in 3Q22 to 35% in 3Q23) and a sharp increase in credit provision expense (+55.1%yoy). Meanwhile, total operating income stayed flat (+0.8%yoy), resulting from better than non-interest income (+13%yoy). 9M2023 PBT slumped -17.8%yoy to VND17,115bn, equalling to 78% of the 2023 target and 83% of our 2023 forecasts.
18
4月
On April 15, TIP made an AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. In 2022F, the company offers unconsolidated guidance with a VND175bn revenue (+6.5% yoy) including around VND30-35bn interest income and a VND85bn NPATMI (0% yoy). The revenue estimates are major attributed to the land rental and related services.
15
4月
We value VNM using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. We maintain our HOLD rating with our target price of VND83,900. Our target price implies a target 2022F PE of 18.9x, which is equal to its peers. The sluggish outlook has been relatively reflected in the share price, VNM has underperformed the market by 20% over the last six months. Therefore, we maintain our Hold rating despite the subdued outlook and cheap valuation. At our target price of VND83,900, the upside is 14.9%.
12
4月
The input-price volatility caused by the geopolitical tension and the pent-up demand for the energy post-COVID19 would compress the company’s margin in 2022F. We estimate gross margin contraction by 4.4%p from 27.4% in 2021 to 23.0% in 2022F. The 1Q22 NPATMI is forecasted at VND8,900bn, +27.7% yoy.
08
4月
On April 7th, FPT made an AGM presentation briefing for the 2022F business plan and the long-term business expansion plan. FPT sets 2022F guidance of VND42.4tn revenue (+19% yoy), and VND7.6tn PBT (+20.2% yoy), this growth guidance is similar to 2021. Particularly, per management, the 2022F revenue estimate consists of some key contributors: Technology of VND24.9tn (+21.1% yoy), Telecommunications of VND14,6tn (+14.8% yoy) and Education, Investment & Others of VND2.96tn (32.5% yoy). The 2022F PBT guidance comprises of Technology with VND3,360bn (+19.3% yoy), Telecommunications with VND2,812bn (+17.4% yoy), and Education, Investment & Others with VND1,446tn (+28.4% yoy).
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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