Phân tích thị trường
Tuần 22W26: NHNN đẩy mạnh bơm ròng qua hợp đồng mua kỳ hạnTrong tuần 22, NHNN ghi nhận mức bơm ròng thanh khoản lớn vào hệ thống nhằm giải tỏa áp lực thắt chặt tạm thời. Động thái này diễn ra sau khi lãi suất liên ngân hàng kỳ hạn ngắn tăng vọt đi kèm giá trị giao dịch mở rộng do nhu cầu vốn tăng cao. Trên phương diện tỷ giá, USDVND đảo chiều giảm bám sát đà suy yếu của đồng bạc xanh trước những tiến triển về việc gia hạn lệnh ngừng bắn tại khu vực Trung Đông.PDFFI-22W26-VIE
2 tháng 6, 2026
NHNN tiếp tục rút ròng thanh khoản
Trong tuần này, trên kênh nghiệp vụ thị trường mở, NHNN đã tiếp tục rút ròng thanh khoản tuần thứ hai liên tiếp, mặc dù ở mức độ vừa phải, động thái này giúp giảm bớt áp lực từ các hợp đồng repo đáo hạn trong khi vẫn thắt chặt các điều kiện thanh khoản trên thị trường liên ngân hàng. Cụ thể, lãi suất liên ngân hàng tăng đáng kể ở phần đầu của đường cong lãi suất, đi kèm với sự sụt giảm của doanh số giao dịch, cho thấy các điều kiện thanh khoản trong hệ thống ngân hàng trở nên thắt chặt hơn. Về phương diện tỷ giá, USDVND ghi nhận xu hướng đi ngang trong bối cảnh đồng bạc xanh tích lũy trước các tin tức đan xen tại Trung Đông và mối lo ngại dai dẳng về lạm phát tại Mỹ do chi phí nhiên liệu cao, điều này khiến kỳ vọng chính sách của Fed phần lớn vẫn nghiêng về kịch bản mang tính diều hâu. Bất chấp sự giảm nhẹ của đồng USD toàn cầu, tỷ giá USDVND vẫn nhích tăng nhẹ do áp lực liên tục từ dòng vốn ngoại rút ròng khi các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài kéo dài chuỗi bán ròng trên sàn HoSE.PDFFI-21W26-VIE26 tháng 5, 2026
Áp lực tỷ giá tiếp diễn khi áp lực lạm phát gia tăng
Trong tuần 20 năm 2026, NHNN đã chuyển sang trạng thái rút ròng thanh khoản ở mức khiêm tốn khỏi hệ thống ngân hàng nhằm cân bằng trạng thái hệ thống. Động thái chủ động hút bớt lượng vốn dư thừa một cách thận trọng này đã đẩy lãi suất liên ngân hàng kỳ hạn ngắn nhích tăng nhẹ, trong khi lãi suất các kỳ hạn dài hơn vẫn giữ nguyên do thanh khoản trung hạn duy trì dồi dào. Trên thị trường ngoại hối, tỷ giá USDVND bật tăng mạnh mẽ khi đồng bạc xanh mạnh lên, do chịu tác động từ kỳ vọng lạm phát gia tăng bắt nguồn từ những gián đoạn trong nguồn cung năng lượng khi cuộc xung đột Iran vẫn tiếp diễn mà chưa có giải pháp giải quyết rõ ràng. Áp lực lạm phát ngày càng dâng cao đã lấn át kịch bản nới lỏng chính sách của Fed, đồng thời làm dấy lên lo ngại về một môi trường lãi suất cao kéo dài trong giai đoạn tới.PDFFI-20W26-VIE19 tháng 5, 2026
NHNN tiếp tục bơm ròng trong bối cảnh lãi suất liên ngân hàng hạ nhiệt
Trong tuần 19 năm 2026, NHNN đã tiếp tục bơm ròng thanh khoản tuần thứ ba liên tiếp ở mức vừa phải nhằm duy trì sự ổn định của hệ thống. Bên cạnh đó, lãi suất liên ngân hàng đã hạ nhiệt sau các đợt bơm thanh khoản gần đây trước kỳ nghỉ lễ. Về phương diện tỷ giá, USDVND đã đảo chiều xu hướng tăng, bám sát đà suy yếu của đồng bạc xanh khi tâm lý thị trường được thúc đẩy bởi kỳ vọng hạ nhiệt căng thẳng địa chính trị tại Trung Đông. Bất chấp tỷ giá giảm bớt áp lực, các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài vẫn kéo dài chuỗi bán ròng trên sàn HoSE sang tuần thứ tám liên tiếp.PDFFI-19W26-VIE12 tháng 5, 2026
NHNN duy trì bơm ròng thanh khoản khi nhu cầu huy động vốn tăng vọt
Trong tuần 18 năm 2026, NHNN duy trì các đợt bơm thanh khoản vào hệ thống ngân hàng, mặc dù ở mức độ vừa phải, trong suốt tuần nghỉ lễ. Cụ thể, lãi suất liên ngân hàng tăng ở các kỳ hạn ngắn do nhu cầu huy động vốn gia tăng trước kỳ nghỉ, trong khi lãi suất các kỳ hạn dài hơn vẫn duy trì ổn định. Về phương diện tỷ giá, giá bán USDVND nhích tăng bất chấp đồng bạc xanh suy yếu, do tác động từ nhu cầu nội địa liên quan đến kỳ nghỉ lễ và đà bán ròng dai dẳng của khối ngoại trên thị trường chứng khoán.PDFFI-18W26-VIE8 tháng 5, 2026
Tin tức nổi bật
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.8 tháng 4, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.6 tháng 3, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.6 tháng 2, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.6 tháng 1, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.30 tháng 12, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.6 tháng 12, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.6 tháng 11, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.7 tháng 10, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.6 tháng 9, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI report29 tháng 7, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.1 tháng 7, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.29 tháng 5, 2024
4M24: The bright economic picture as dynamics remain favorable
Vietnam’s April exports grew 10.60% YoY, led by electronics. Retail sales increased steadily by 9.04% YoY amid improving industrial employment, while headline inflation rose to 4.40% YoY, driven by surging gasoline prices.2 tháng 5, 2024
3M24: Economic activities lose the acceleration steam
Vietnam’s 1Q24 GDP growth slowed to 5.66% YoY. However, March exports rose 14.19% YoY, securing a 13-month trade surplus, while headline inflation eased to 3.97% YoY as food demand cooled post-Tet.29 tháng 3, 2024
2M24: Economic performance leans on external forces
Vietnam's February exports dipped 4.73% YoY due to Tet, but 2M24 exports grew 19.24%. Retail sales rose 8.49% YoY, while manufacturing-led registered FDI soared 36.80% annually to USD1.93bn.29 tháng 2, 2024
12M23: Domestic output accelerates on the external recovery
Vietnam’s 4Q23 GDP grew 6.72% YoY, driven by industrial and services recovery. December exports rose 13.37% YoY, led by electronics, while year-end registered FDI tripled, boosted by a major LNG project.30 tháng 12, 2023
11M23: Domestic consumption solidifies the economic acceleration
In November, Vietnam's exports grew 6.73% YoY, driven by electronics and agriculture. Retail sales achieved double-digit growth at 10.10% YoY, while headline inflation rose marginally to 3.45% YoY.29 tháng 11, 2023
10M23: Economic acceleration on external hopes
In October, Vietnam's exports grew 5.90% YoY, led by electronics. Newly registered FDI surged by 49.84% YoY to USD5.06bn, while headline inflation cooled slightly to 3.59% YoY due to lower fuel prices.30 tháng 10, 2023
9M23: Gaining momentum on easing global challenges
Vietnam’s 3Q23 GDP grew 5.33% YoY as industrial activities improved. September trade returned to growth with a 4.57% export increase, while headline inflation surged to 3.66% YoY, driven by education fees.1 tháng 10, 2023
8M23: Internal factors speak out on the lack of external support
In August, Vietnam's exports declined 7.60% YoY due to weak electronics demand. Retail sales accelerated moderately to 7.57% YoY, while headline CPI rose to 2.96% YoY, driven by oil and rice prices.29 tháng 8, 2023
Ưu đãi nổi bật
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.8 tháng 4, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.6 tháng 3, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.6 tháng 2, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.6 tháng 1, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.30 tháng 12, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.6 tháng 12, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.6 tháng 11, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.7 tháng 10, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.6 tháng 9, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI report29 tháng 7, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.1 tháng 7, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.29 tháng 5, 2024
4M24: The bright economic picture as dynamics remain favorable
Vietnam’s April exports grew 10.60% YoY, led by electronics. Retail sales increased steadily by 9.04% YoY amid improving industrial employment, while headline inflation rose to 4.40% YoY, driven by surging gasoline prices.2 tháng 5, 2024
3M24: Economic activities lose the acceleration steam
Vietnam’s 1Q24 GDP growth slowed to 5.66% YoY. However, March exports rose 14.19% YoY, securing a 13-month trade surplus, while headline inflation eased to 3.97% YoY as food demand cooled post-Tet.29 tháng 3, 2024
2M24: Economic performance leans on external forces
Vietnam's February exports dipped 4.73% YoY due to Tet, but 2M24 exports grew 19.24%. Retail sales rose 8.49% YoY, while manufacturing-led registered FDI soared 36.80% annually to USD1.93bn.29 tháng 2, 2024
12M23: Domestic output accelerates on the external recovery
Vietnam’s 4Q23 GDP grew 6.72% YoY, driven by industrial and services recovery. December exports rose 13.37% YoY, led by electronics, while year-end registered FDI tripled, boosted by a major LNG project.30 tháng 12, 2023
11M23: Domestic consumption solidifies the economic acceleration
In November, Vietnam's exports grew 6.73% YoY, driven by electronics and agriculture. Retail sales achieved double-digit growth at 10.10% YoY, while headline inflation rose marginally to 3.45% YoY.29 tháng 11, 2023
10M23: Economic acceleration on external hopes
In October, Vietnam's exports grew 5.90% YoY, led by electronics. Newly registered FDI surged by 49.84% YoY to USD5.06bn, while headline inflation cooled slightly to 3.59% YoY due to lower fuel prices.30 tháng 10, 2023
9M23: Gaining momentum on easing global challenges
Vietnam’s 3Q23 GDP grew 5.33% YoY as industrial activities improved. September trade returned to growth with a 4.57% export increase, while headline inflation surged to 3.66% YoY, driven by education fees.1 tháng 10, 2023
8M23: Internal factors speak out on the lack of external support
In August, Vietnam's exports declined 7.60% YoY due to weak electronics demand. Retail sales accelerated moderately to 7.57% YoY, while headline CPI rose to 2.96% YoY, driven by oil and rice prices.29 tháng 8, 2023