Steel - In-depth - [LESS POSITIVE] - Challenges

Overall sector: For 2H2026F, we forecast total steel sales volume in Vietnam to grow by -3.3% yoy. Domestic market: Forecasted at -5.6% yoy. We anticipate that rising interest rates will dampen demand in the residential construction sector, which typically accounts for 60-70% of domestic steel consumption. Exports: In 2H2026F, we project total steel exports from Vietnam to achieve growth of +1.0-2.0% yoy.