9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect

Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.