10M26: Exports take the lead in Vietnam’s growth acceleration

October data reinforced the growth momentum observed in 3Q26, with exports emerging as a key engine supporting Vietnam’s 10% growth ambition. Export turnover surged 51.4% YoY to USD64.7bn, significantly outpacing import growth of 43%. This further supports our earlier view that robust imports and FDI inflows were laying the foundation for new manufacturing capacity. Meanwhile, public investment execution remained strong, reaching nearly 70% of the annual plan and exceeding last year's progress. Buoyant exports and infrastructure construction are gradually strengthening labor-market conditions, supporting household purchasing power and domestic retail activity. Despite elevated oil-driven inflationary pressures, we believe Vietnam remains on track to achieve the government's ambitious growth target this year.