Outlook 2026: Pressure Makes Diamonds

We forecast Vietnam’s real GDP to grow by 9.0% in 2026, underpinned by an ambitious government agenda aimed at positioning the year as a critical breakthrough in the country’s development trajectory. A key pillar of this strategy is the acceleration of public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects, which is expected to alleviate structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity, and crowd in private-sector participation. Beyond public investment, domestic demand is likely to remain a stable growth anchor, mainly driven by supportive fiscal policies. At the same time, we expect export performance to remain resilient, supported by Vietnam’s proven comparative advantages amid the turbulence caused by reciprocal tariffs. Taken together, these factors should drive a broad-based acceleration in economic activity across key sectors, setting a solid foundation for the opening year of the country’s so-called ‘National Rise’ era.