16
9月
The July performance witnessed the significant decline in export volume, however, export still remains as the key growth driver in 7M22. Weak demand dragged overall performance. In which, domestic sales volume dropped significantly by 13.8% yoy.
16
9月
Money market transactions return after a long holiday with a turbulence in the interbank market when the liquidity condition seems to be thinner. Traded value declines significantly while interest rates soar, indicating that liquidity providers seems more cautions under the solid SBV’s stance in reducing USD-VND interest rate spread and recent development of the DXY.
16
9月
We witnessed the slump in performance of FY11M2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 8 months of 2022, which showed a significant drop in demand from both domestic and export channels.
16
9月
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Real Estate, and Industrials whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested. However, the divestment was not significant and the outflow was mainly driven by the selling pressure on VFMVN30 and VFMVN Diamond.
16
9月
Last week, trading activity came back to normal level. With foreign trading activity, foreign trading activity ticked up. However, selling pressure overwhelmed market demand. Net sell value was VND4.7bn, a 5-month high. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB, FPT, and HPG as the underlying asset kept absorbing the highest trading value from both domestic and foreigners. Notably, foreign investors placed large sell order on STB’s CW, driving by the strong divestment on CSTB2211 (-22.0%) and CSTB2215 (-14.6%).
16
9月
Vietnam’s economy would likely shine in 3Q22 with impressive GDP growth and well-controlled inflation under the ongoing recovery. In our opinion, trade activities would slow down in the third quarter while favorable domestic consumption would be the primary pillar for economic growth. Therefore, we predict real GDP to grow by 12.16% in 3Q22.
16
9月
The Philadelphia Manufacturing index (Philly Fed report) gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, the Philly Fed report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. That is the reason why Fed is watching this indicator to find the best monetary policy.
16
9月
Desipte the recovery, the VNIndex closes below the the 1,250-pts threshold, implying a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
16
9月
Based on data as of 12 Sep 2022, we expect that foreign ETFs will sell HPG and STB the most with 16 million shares and 13 million shares. On the buy-side, VND, VNM, and NVL will be bought heavily with 8.2 million shares, 4.9 million shares, and 4.4 million shares.
16
9月
Short VN30F2210 when there is the breakdown at 1,250 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,280 pts level. (Hourly chart)
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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