30
9月
Market commentary: Form a new bottom
In the short term, the VNIndex shows a new bottom because of pessimistic sentiment. That means the downtrend is confirmed. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
30
9月
In the short term, the VNIndex shows a new bottom because of pessimistic sentiment. That means the downtrend is confirmed. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
29
9月
In Aug 2022, TLG revenue escalated 275% yoy to VND300bn, however, decreased 6% mom, as compared to the revenue in 7M22 of VND318bn. NPAT in Aug 2022 dropped by 32% mom to VND39bn but stayed positive on the yoy basis as TLG made a loss of VND28bn in Aug 2021. Back to school season promised to bring fruitful sales to TLG in 3Q22. Not to mention the lauch of new modern lines Colorkit and Pazto, which were supported by intense marketing campaigns in August and Sep 2022.
29
9月
PET’s Aug performance stayed flattish with a VND1.7tn of net revenue,+30.9% yoy, and a VND24bn EBT (+4.3% yoy). EBT margin in Aug 2022 was 3.9%, 0.5%p lower yoy due to the revenue collapse of real estate leasing, which had higher profit margin than other segments. We expect the revenue to sharply rise in 2H22F thanks to the high demand of students for the new semester and the latest iPhone 14 model coming in September 2022.
29
9月
SBV on Thursday decided to raise several policy rates for the first time since 2012 following the Fed’s decision of a 100bps rate hike. Besides, the central bank has significantly increased the T-bill offering with higher winning yields to ensure the new interest rate corridor would be effective. This decision implies that money market interest rates would be persistently high this year to counter the capital outflow due to a stronger DXY.
29
9月
In the short term, the VNIndex retests the last bottom on July with high selling pressure. That means the VNIndex shows the pull back. However, the downtrend is confirmed. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
28
9月
The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
28
9月
In the short term, the VNIndex closes below the 1,200-pts threshold, implying the confirmation for the bearish market. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
26
9月
The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
26
9月
In the short term, the downtrend of the VNIndex is still intact because the VNIndex closes below the significant moving average. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
20
9月
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, inflow has come back to Vietnam after experiencing three consecutive weeks of outflow. The inflow was mainly driven by the slowdown of outflow on VFMVN Diamond as well as demand also spread to other major ETFs.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.