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4M23 preliminary revenue posted VND3,116bn (-36.1% yoy), backed by (1) high base in 4M22, and (2) the tumble revenue of most products yoy and qoq, especially pangasius. 4M23 revenue fulfill 26% our estimates. We maintain a HOLD rating

The global condition has exerted pressure on the stock market in the short term because (1) companies have faced difficulties in 1Q23 and (2) the corporate bond market poses future financial pressure. We expect two scenarios may unfold. Firstly, in the bullish scenario, the VNIndex can reach 1,220 pts in 2H23. Secondly, the bearish scenario suggests the VNIndex retest the zone of 780-910 pts.

We tuned in to CTG’s analyst meeting on May 18 which featured the strategical visibility on the group and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. Total credit risk provision cost could fall by 34.5-50% yoy (VND12,000-15,000bn) in 2023, per management. However, CTG has yet provide the PBT guidance since they must obtain approval from SVB based on 2023 AGM. The management eyes NPL to be below 1.8% as of end-2023.

Although the VNIndex rebounds, the market sentiment has become cautious in the short term due to selling pressure around 1,100 pts. Therefore, investors should be careful and keep their stock positions at a safe level.

Long VN30F2306 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level (Hourly chart).

VN30F2305 is expired on this trading day which means new positions should be stalked on the upcoming contract (VN30F2306).

In the agriculture sector, revenue edged up by 7% yoy to VND18.7tn, mainly contributed by the surging revenue of crop producers by 21% yoy, covering 20% yoy revenue slump of feeding companies. We expect that falling feed supply prices amid demand increase thanks to the long holiday (30/4-1/5) will help retrieve the pork and poultry price in 2Q23. However, the expenses of utilities and interest expenses could remain at a high level in 2Q23.

Although the market decreased, the liquidity increased and the VNIndex still closes above the threshold of 1,050. That is not bad signals. Therefore, investors should stay on sidelines and observe the next movements of the market.

The liquidity condition generally improves after the holiday with lower interest rates for short-term loans and increased traded value, and G-bond yields tend to reduce for first and second markets. The development in the money market continues to reflect the government’s efforts in promoting credit activities to support domestic enterprises after the economy experienced a depressed performance in the first quarter. Furthermore, USDVND remains stable in the late phase of the Fed's rate hike, providing Vietnam’s monetary authority more confidence to follow easing decisions.

Long VN30F2305 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level (Hourly chart).