07
1月
The November performance witnessed the pause in domestic demand revival amid high expectations during peak construction season. The domestic volume of steel coat recorded 13,516 tonnes (-35.6% mom, -37.8% yoy) while domestic steel pipe volume posted 10,022 tonnes (-28.1% you, -52.9% mom) amid the easing lockdown policy.
07
1月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Nov 2021 Vietnam steel production increased 1.1% mom to 2.68mn tonnes, bringing 11M21 growth to 21.4% yoy (28.3mn tonnes). During Nov 21, we observe that the local demand revival pulled back (-18.4.% mom, -25.9% yoy). Export-driven volume was at a stable level during 2H21 - 685,167 tonnes.
07
1月
After a severe contraction in 3Q21, Vietnam's economy has successfully backed into the pre-pandemic growth track in the fourth quarter. It is visible that the main growth drivers for 4Q21 are from the manufacturing and export areas when these sectors have a phenomenal run in the reopening phase. Meanwhile, marked recovery in retail sales in the last two months also eases some pressure on the economic growth. These developments lay a strong foundation for the economic outlook in the next year.
07
1月
Corporate bond offerings slumped to VND26.9tn, -53% mom, -3.2% yoy in Nov, prompting to VND547.2tn, +52.1% yoy in 11M21. Commercial banks and security firms subscribed 27.4%/36.3% in Nov, and 28%/42% in 11M21. Since commercial banks constituted 33% of total Real Estate bond subscription and 70% of total Real Estate bond offerings aimed to refinance, to leveraged buyout, and expand, we estimate a 20-21% of total bond issuance could be hit by this circular 16.
07
1月
In overall, the corporate bond market was quiet in Oct 2020. Issuing value dropped by 35% compared to Sep 2020. Accumulated 10M20, about VND357tn worth of corporate bonds were issued, up 26% YoY as well as corporate bond rate has increased slightly in 2020
07
1月
Long VN30F2202 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1460 pts level (Hourly chart).
07
1月
Although the all-time high is held, breakout has high probability to occur. In this case, investors should continue to hold the current positions on leading stocks and increase the position size when breakout is confirmed.
07
1月
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
07
1月
We expect local ETFs to buy HPG, VPB, VND, and TCB the most, with 1.9 million shares, 1.7 million shares, 1.3 million shares, and 1.0 million, respectively. On the sell side, ACB, STB, and VHM will be sold heavily with more than 1 million shares.
07
1月
Foreign demand overwhelmed. Buying activity focused on Financials and Industrials whilst Consumer Staples and Materials experienced the selling pressure. With ETF flow, Vietnam recorded the inflow. Net inflow was USD2mn, mainly contributed by the demand on VNFIN Lead ETF and VFMVN30 ETF.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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