研究中心

Total electricity production in Jul was 24.6bn kWh (+3% yoy). In which, coal-fired power and gas thermal power volume plummeted to 8.2bn kWh (-20% yoy) and 2.2bn kWh (-5% yoy), respectively in the context of rising input material prices. The unexpectedly high level of rainfall in the extremely hot season made the hydropower output surge to 11bn kWh (+40% yoy). The probability of La Nina effect will wane in Jul and will rebound during Aug – Oct 2022 with moderate probability (68%), thus we believe hydropower makers will shine in 3Q22.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 2Q22, we saw the revenue growth pace in 2Q22 just slightly declined by 2.4% yoy thanks to the good selling price while NPATMI growth dropped significantly by 67.4% yoy. Net profit growth pace in last 2 quarters was significantly hit by heavier material costs. We also see the high material costs still partly affect the margin in 3Q22 due to inventories cycle. In 3Q22, we expect the total consumption volume (finished steel products and HRC) will positively grow at 2.6% yoy thanks to the low base in 3Q21 caused by the COVID-19 lockdown.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained optimistic with 16.9% yoy and 2.7% mom, to USD3.68bn in July. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.8bn, +13.1% yoy/-0.1% mom, accounting for 48.8% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 7M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 20.6% yoy to USD22.3bn.

Thanks to the 3 new wind power projects which officially operated at the end of 2021, GEG’s output volume was considerably up 47% yoy to 217mn kWh which made the total revenue to have an impressive growth of 58% yoy, to VND506bn. However, 2Q22’s NPAT-post MI plunged 53% yoy to VND30bn due to the surging depreciation and interest expenses. GEG is awaiting the regulation regarding “transitional” renewable energy projects and it is expected to be a beneficiary of PDP VIII.

Although the absolute result of the pharmaceutical industry showed a positive signal about the recovery of the pharmaceutical industry, it was not very impressive as the revenue growth only inched 4.6% qoq in 2Q22 and the NPAT posted a fall of 4.7% qoq.

In Jul 2022, Vietnam’s prelim seafood export recorded USD1,047mn, up 14% yoy but down 7% mom. Shrimp and pangasius export increased 3% yoy and 68% yoy in Jul. Yet, shrimp export fell 15% mom and pangasius export declined 10% mom since the demand import in the key market as US and China drop significantly.

Based on our estimate, 2Q22 aggregated revenue of 26 listed fertilizer producers rose 46.0% yoy (VND31.9tn), while aggregated NPAT climbed 211.0% yoy (VND5.5tn). However, compared to the first quarter, it could be said that the fertilizer sector had the lag business results with a 1.3%/20.4% qoq decrease in revenue and net profit.

In Jul, the export of agricultural products was sluggish when most of the items decreased in both value and volume. Total agricultural plant export was USD1,671mn (-10% mom and +5% yoy). Surprisingly, rubber export value topped in total export turnover with 21% share, followed by rice (20%), coffee (17%), cashew (16%), vegetables (16%), and cassava (5%).

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During June 22, we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We expect the trend to continue in next 3 months.

Total insurance premium accumulated in 5M22 was pegged VND94,681bn (+14.4% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 14.8% to VND66,714bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 13.3% to VND27,967bn. Top 5 players in non-life insurance reached double-digit growth rates in first five months, except Bao Viet. MIC insurance premium increased 33.4% yoy, the most impressive in top five, and took the fourth place from Bao Minh.