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The industry posted a VND10,899bn turnover (+12.7% yoy, +2.3% qoq) and VND827bn NPAT (+29.8% qoq, +13.1% qoq). Overall, the top five companies (VMD, DVN, DHG, CDP, and TRA) accounted for around 52% of the industry turnovers. Surrounded the giant rivals, DHG still maintained its leading position with the highest NPAT of VND262bn (+30.1% yoy, +12% qoq). DBD and OPC emerged as brisk players with GM expansion of 16.3%p/8.3%p yoy in 3Q22.

Based on our estimate, the fertilizer sector announced a VND28,491bn revenue (+47.1% yoy), and a VND4,188bn NPAT (+123.4% yoy) in 3Q22, mainly driven by the strong increase in selling prices. Nonetheless, with the fall in domestic selling and petite contribution from the export turnover, 3Q22 revenue/NPAT of the whole sector still lagged behind vs 2Q22 by 11.2%/24.7% qoq in 3Q22.

According to the GSO estimate, in Oct, the total agriculture export value is USD1,789mn (+17% mom, +19% yoy). In detail, rubber and vegetables have the highest export value of USD477mn (+56% mom, +45% yoy) and USD350mn (+40% mom, +59% yoy).

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Sept 22, we observed an improvement in domestic demand while export sales volume was still sluggish.

According to the GSO estimate, in Sep, the total agriculture export value is USD1,526mn (-5% mom and -1% yoy). Except rice and cassava remain at the same level as the last month, most agriculture products record a decrease in export output. According to the Thai Post, Thailand and Vietnam could increase the export price by 20% compared to the current level. However, Vietnam Government has not yet confirmed it.

PET’s Aug performance stayed flattish with a VND1.7tn of net revenue,+30.9% yoy, and a VND24bn EBT (+4.3% yoy). EBT margin in Aug 2022 was 3.9%, 0.5%p lower yoy due to the revenue collapse of real estate leasing, which had higher profit margin than other segments. We expect the revenue to sharply rise in 2H22F thanks to the high demand of students for the new semester and the latest iPhone 14 model coming in September 2022.

Hydropower output surged to 10.7 kWh in Aug (+30% yoy) thanks to favorable weather conditions. In 1H22, the mixed coal price supplied to domestic power plants had increased 30-35% yoy. We predict the coal price will keep its rising trend. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023, coupled with shrinking gas input price, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power, especially gas-fired power in 2023F.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During August 22, we observed an improvement in domestic sales volume while export sales volume was still weak.

Flat-steel sector has overperformed the broader market throughout 2021 as they have benefitted from global supply disruption caused by COVID-19. In 2022, however, we reiterate a Neutral rating on the Flat-steel sector as we see multiple headwinds upcoming amid high-inflation and central banks' policies concerns.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained robust with a growth of 51.1% yoy and 8.7% mom, reaching USD4bn in August. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.74bn, +31.6% yoy/-3.0% mom, accounting for 43.6% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 8M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 24.5% yoy to USD26.3bn.