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The total revenue growth momentum of listed garment companies was maintained in 3Q22 when posting 27.0% compared to 25.8% in 2Q22. the earnings growth pace spiked from 22.6%% yoy in 2Q22 to 59.0% yoy in 3Q22 thanks to the low base effect as the Southern region was in a lockdown period in 3Q21. Whereas, listed yarn makers witnessed decent growth figures in 3Q22. Specifically, the revenue growth pace in 3Q22 was 16.7% yoy compared to only 5.5% yoy in 2Q22. Net profit growth of yarn companies also jumped to 12.7% yoy in 3Q22 from 1.2% yoy in 2Q22.

Revenue of ICT/Jewelry/Automobile/Airport retailers in 3Q22 respectively surged by 35.3%/700%/176%/700% yoy driven by the recover from extreme closure during the lockdown in 3Q21. Retailers and retail lessors are hectic preparing for the largest sale season in the year, including the Single Day 11/11, Black Friday 25/11 and Christmas 24/12.

In 3Q22, hydropower generators’ revenue and NPAT-MI went up 58% yoy and 126% yoy thanks to La Nina. The coal and input gas prices in 2023F are projected to slow down compared to the towering price in 2022. Coupled with the waning La Nina, we believe that EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.

Breweries led F&B’s revenue and earnings growth in 3Q22, the aggregated revenue and earnings growth of 14 listed brewery producers accelerated sharply in 3Q22 compared to a low base in 3Q21. The revenue accelerated to 84% yoy compared to 21.9% yoy in 2Q22. Besides, beer producers achieved brisk net profit growth of 160% yoy compared to 60.6% yoy in 2Q22.

In Sep and Oct 2022, hydropower output surged 17% yoy thanks to La Nina effect. Coal-fired power volume dropped to 14.9bn kWh (-6% yoy) owing to surging global coal price (+105% yoy) and tight coal supply. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023F, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.

Based on the General Department of Customs, the prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment in October grew only 0.7% yoy and dropped 0.8% mom to USD2.7bn. In October 2022, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell -14% yoy, but lifted 3.6% mom, accounting for 37.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 10M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 21.5% yoy to nearly USD31.7bn.

The revenue growth rate of listed pangasius leaped 68% yoy while shrimp exporters inched 6.5% yoy. Meanwhile, the listed pangasius and shrimp exporters' revenue recorded 14.2% qoq and 5.7% qoq export decreases, especially the top tiers, which slowed down quickly after a significant bullish in 2Q22. Despite the upward trend of seafood exporters slowed down in 3Q22, we maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating since we believe that the seafood industry rally is persisting through 4Q22F backed by sound business conditions.

In Oct, according to the Customs, total fertilizer export volume was 160,219 tonnes (-16% mom, +60% yoy), equivalent to USD88mn (-19% mom, +109% yoy). Vietnam imported nearly 322,000 tonnes of fertilizer (+29% mom, +7% yoy), equivalent to USD154mn (+52% mom, +35% yoy). Based on data we collected, in Sep, urea accounted for about 34% of total fertilizer imported (about 86,000 tonnes), followed by NPK with 28% (about 69,000 tonnes).

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We continue to see the low demand in 4Q22F as bond and property industry issues and interest rate upward pressure for forex control purpose will hinder the consumption demand from end-use buyers.

PET’s 3Q22 revenue increased by 17% yoy to VND4.5tn mainly driven by merchandise distribution revenue growth of 22% yoy to VND4tn. In 9M22, PET’s revenue rose by 12% yoy to VND12.8tn (fulfilling 64% of full-year guidance), mainly driven by greater sales of smartphones that grew by 16.2% yoy to VND4.8tn. GM improved to 5.6%, +0.5%p yoy in 9M22 thanks to better price discount from suppliers. NPAT slightly rose by 2% yoy to VND177bn, fulfilling 53% of the full-year guidance. We attribute the slower NPAT growth to the allowance of VND166bn for security investment, equal to the temporary loss of 48% from security investment as of end-3Q22.