08
4月
Compared to Feb, fertilizer production in Mar recovered with 597,800 tonnes (+10% mom and +2% yoy). Fertilizer export volume in Mar had modest amount at 90,000 tonnes, up 80% mom but down 30% yoy. While the export price in Mar was estimated at USD544/tonne (+5% mom and +76% yoy), the import price was USD400/tonne (-18% mom but +43% yoy).
08
4月
Trading value in 1Q22 was VND31.2tn (-7.1% QoQ) thanks to high liquidity in Jan and Mar. Number of of new accounts created new high record in March with 270,636 accounts. At end-Mar, accumulated number of accounts was 4.95mn. The ratio of domestic individuals accounts overpopulation is 5% which is 2025 target for the stock market. In term of HSX's brokerage market share, VPS expands their market share to 17.94%. SSI and HCM continue to lost their pieces while VND and TCBS slightly uplifted market share.
25
3月
On 21th Mar 2022, The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of 17th period of review (POR 17) on pangasius exported to US market. Accordingly, anti-dumping duty is at USD0/kg for 4 pangasius exporters. As more exporters (Van Duc Tien Giang and NFTS as additional exporters) to enjoy zero anti-dumping tax could impact positively to Vietnam pangasius industry.
21
3月
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group to EVN's 14 coal-fired power plants in February were only equivalent to 69.24% of the predetermined contracted volume and much lower than their operation demand. As we contacted with TKV, they asserted that TKV still supplied enough coal for power production in 2M22. TKV will mobilize labors to ensure coal supply of 150,000 tonnes/day.
18
3月
According to the MoIT, fertilizer export volume in Feb fell dramatically to 50,000 tonnes (-86% mom and -44% yoy), leading the export value down to USD26mn ( -91% mom and -7% yoy). On average, the export price was USD520/tonne (+67 yoy and -36% mom) in Feb. We believe that the reason for the cutting down export volume mainly comes from Government’s effort in stabilizing domestic fertilizer prices and stockpiling fertilizer to ensure supply for the upcoming Summer-Autumn crop.
17
3月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Feb 2022 Vietnam steel production increased 2% mom to 2.41mn tonnes. During Feb 22, we observed the revival of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday.
08
3月
In Nov 2021, electricity production was 20.71bn kWh (+3.9% yoy, +2.1% mom). Hydropower output was slightly down 2.9% mom to 8.55bn kWh but increased 11% yoy thanks to La Nina effects. The output of gas thermal and coal-fired power was down yoy due to the rising price of input material.
07
3月
Based on our collection, the 4Q21 aggregate earnings momentum of 26 listed Oil & gas companies on three bourses recovered from the bottom of 3Q21 due to gloomy demand in the lockdown period. Net profit growth decelerated to 33% yoy in 4Q21 from the peak of 1Q21. Overall, 2021 outcome was eventually splendid with a 172% yoy net profit and 30% yoy revenue growth.
01
3月
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 22 listed pharmaceutical companies fell by 25.2% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI slightly inched up by 6.7% yoy. We believe there will be plenty of room for growth for the pharmaceutical sector in 1Q22F mainly due to (1) revenue through ETC increases when the filed hospitals take back their capacity; (2) demand is rising as people tend to store medicine in order to prevent Omicron variant and deal with “post” COVID diseases; (3) opportunity is coming from franchising the COVID-19 treatment drugs production progress.
28
2月
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in Jan, fertilizer export volume rose significantly to reach 370,000 tonnes (+192% yoy and +147% mom), while the export value grew strongly to USD299mn (+682% yoy and +172% mom), mainly due to the increase in global selling prices. On average, the export price was USD808/tonne (+170 yoy and +10% mom) in Jan.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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