31
10月
The increase in consumer spending in turn helps the economy sustain its expansion. If for some reason consumer confidence declines, consumers become less certain about their financial prospects, and they begin to spend less money; this in turn affects businesses as they begin to experience a decrease in sales.
26
10月
The money market has eased this week after SBV released liquidity support with a massive amount of repo contracts. Interbank rates were lowering for the second consecutive week with lower trading value, likely indicating that the liquidity problem in the banking system was resolved. In this, investors seem to watch closely the development of the FX market heading FOMC meeting in November. USDVND upturn remains persistent and it seems that SBV would return to implement monetary tools to stabilize the exchange rate in the next few weeks.
24
10月
Manufacturing and Service industry both play essential role in boosting the social and economic development. A vibrant manufacturing and service base leads to more research and development, innovation, productivity, exports, and middle-class jobs. Furthermore, manufacturing and service help to raise living standards more than any other sector. The PMI plays an important role in helping financial market participants in making decision.
19
10月
The money market this week is gradually returning stable when SBV aggressively offers more liquidity to resolve the turbulence. The overnight interbank dropped sharply after surging to the year-high last week. Given the much cheaper funding cost of the local currency, USDVND steadily advanced, heading to Fed’s decision in the November meeting. We predict that the central bank will retain its priority of liquidity stability in the short term before returning to a longer-term objective of forex market stabilization.
29
9月
SBV on Thursday decided to raise several policy rates for the first time since 2012 following the Fed’s decision of a 100bps rate hike. Besides, the central bank has significantly increased the T-bill offering with higher winning yields to ensure the new interest rate corridor would be effective. This decision implies that money market interest rates would be persistently high this year to counter the capital outflow due to a stronger DXY.
20
9月
Short-term liquidity pressure in the money market has eased this week with a lower overnight interbank rate. It seems that the turbulence in the previous week resolved as the central bank was firmly forming a new interest rate corridor of around the 4% level. However, we could see some development as a front-run to Fed's rate decision next week. Vietnam's money market could be highly volatile with a high possibility of a more elevated short-lived interest rate after the release of the FOMC’s decision.
16
9月
Money market transactions return after a long holiday with a turbulence in the interbank market when the liquidity condition seems to be thinner. Traded value declines significantly while interest rates soar, indicating that liquidity providers seems more cautions under the solid SBV’s stance in reducing USD-VND interest rate spread and recent development of the DXY.
16
9月
Vietnam’s economy would likely shine in 3Q22 with impressive GDP growth and well-controlled inflation under the ongoing recovery. In our opinion, trade activities would slow down in the third quarter while favorable domestic consumption would be the primary pillar for economic growth. Therefore, we predict real GDP to grow by 12.16% in 3Q22.
16
9月
The Philadelphia Manufacturing index (Philly Fed report) gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, the Philly Fed report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. That is the reason why Fed is watching this indicator to find the best monetary policy.
12
9月
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. The CPI is widely used by financial market participants to gauge inflation and by the Federal Reserve to calibrate its monetary policy. Businesses and consumers also use the CPI to make informed economic decisions. Since CPI measures the change in consumers' purchasing power, it is often a key factor in pay negotiations.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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