研究中心

On Sep 19, we attend Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment (CII) Extraordinary General Meeting. The company presented to the investors their plan to amend the company business line and to develop new infrastructure projects. The company failed to organize the meeting due to only ~200 investors attended, represent 31.2% of the voting shares.

VCG’s revenue doubled by +108% yoy, 132.4% qoq (VND4.5tn), and NPAT skyrocketed to VND130.3bn (+592% qoq) compared to 2Q22 loss of VND60.3bn. The real estate accounting for 25% of revenue in 1H23 posted a GM of 29% (+9%p yoy) than the construction division (60% of total revenue, GM: 2.1%, -3.3%p yoy). The Company's interest expense in 1H23 was VND430.9bn, +11% yoy. The revenue growth pushing up the interest coverage to 5x in 2Q23 from 3.3x in 2Q22

QNS is the domination of the soymilk market and also holds the second-largest sugar factory in Vietnam. With dominant market share, soymilk segment supplies a cash cow, while we anticipate that QNS's sugar production will be maintained at a high level, ensuring good selling prices and strong profit margins for QNS in the years ahead due to anti-dumping duties. We initiate our coverage on Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND65,900, implying a 33.0% upside by using a DCF (50%) and PE (50%) methodology.

We initiate our coverage on TCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND43,700, implying a 30% upside buy using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). TTM PB is at trough of 0.7x and we believe it is worth of trading at 1.1x PB driven by earnings turnaround in 2024-25F. TCB growth is taking a breath, made worse by the corporate bond crisis and real estate market stagnation. Against the odds, we believe it is just a temporary period of trouble.

To fulfill the urge of the Prime Minister in minister meetings, the SBV rewards the attendees with the amendment cited in Circular 10/2023 on late 23 Aug. By suspending three sub-articles 8,9,10, the SBV removes the metaphorical meaning and exposes the lenders to more discretion in setting the disbursement terms and conditions. We expect Circular 10 could facilitate the loan growth to real estate sectors and benefit the developers and homebuyers.

2Q23 PBT surged +75%yoy (to VND1,577bn) thanks to strong income growth from non-NII (+331%yoy), low OPEX (-15.3%yoy) and a constant provision expense (+1%yoy). Meanwhile, NII kept a moderate growth rate of 7% with stable NIM. 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) fell to 6.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 7.4% and 4Q22’s 4.8%) and 3.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 3.3% and 4Q22’s 2.2%) respectively.

On Aug 11th, we tuned in to MWG’s AM presenting the 1H23 performance. In 1H23, MWG reported net revenue of VND56.6tn (-20.1% yoy) and NPAT of VND38.7bn (-98% yoy), fulfilling 42%/1% of the year guidance. TGDD’s revenue slid to VND13.3tn (-29.4% yoy), while DMX’s revenue also fell to VND28.2tn (-25.9% yoy). BHX’s revenue thrived to VND7.3tn (+7.85% yoy, +14.5% qoq) in 2Q23, accumulating to 1H23 VND13.7tn (+6.8% yoy).

PVD posted its 2Q23 results with revenue of VND1.4tn (-6.7% yoy) due to lower revenue from well-related services and no revenue from leased rigs. While NPAT-MI turned green to VND161bn in 2Q23 vs a net loss of VND60bn in 2Q22 since PVD’s average jack-up (JU) day rate (USD75,000/day), utilization rate rose strongly yoy and booking a compensation of VND70bn for ending drilling contract with Valeura - Thailand.

2Q23 PBT was up 9.8% yoy (to VND2,022bn) thanks to a strong growth of TOI. 2Q23 high provision expense (+534%yoy) was the key dampening factor to the profit growth. 2Q23 LC and LMC loan (+28.09%YTD, +4.7%qoq) was the driver of the total consumer loan (+13.22%YTD, -0.16%qoq). 2Q23 NIM (TTM) inched down to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% in 1Q23 and 4.1% in 2Q22) due to lower asset yield. NFI went up 85.3%yoy (to VND1,317bn) in 2Q23. The CIR ratio declined from 2Q22’s 38% to 2Q23’s 29%. 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) climbed to 6.0% (vs. 1Q23’s 5.2%) and 2.6% (vs. 1Q23’s 2.0%) respectively.

PAN reached the net revenue of VND2.8tn in 2022, fell by 12% yoy, met 35% of 2023 guidance. In which, seafood contributed 43%, agriculture contributed 42% and packaged foods contributed 15%. In 2H23, PAN’s management expected that high. Seafood segment recorded the increasing number of export orders since late-May, thus PAN expects sales to recover on the quarterly basis.demand of rice will enable high selling price of paddy seeds for the Summer-Autumn season. 2H23 is the peak season of confectionery sales with Mid-Autumn and Tet holiday preparation.