04
5月
HPG’ revenue increased 41.3% yoy to VND44,058bn in 4Q22 driven mainly by steel segment while agriculture and real estate segment revenue dropped 28% and 61% yoy, respectively. The 1Q22 NPAT-MI posted VND8,217bn. +17.7% yoy. The 1Q22 results fulfil 24.5%/24.6% our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts.
04
5月
Vinhomes recorded its 1Q22 decelerating 31.3% yoy growth of topline (VND8.9tn). The bottom line dropped less by 15.9% yoy (VND4.5tn) thanks to a stronger growth of financial income (66% yoy, VND3.8tn) which offset the gross margin contraction (43.3%, -4.5%p). VHM’s share price retreated since the investors’ sentiments are vulnerable over some investigation on the market manipulation and corporate bond issuance. The valuation is light as the 12MF PE has slipped to 7.7x, a historical low level. Given the rosy presale growth momentum and cheaper valuation across the sector, VHM is worth accumulation.
04
5月
In 2022F, the company sets the guidance of a VND6,428bn revenue (-17% yoy) and VND200bn PBT (-46% yoy), with the NPK consumed volume of 603,000 tonnes. A cash dividend of 20% at par is going to be paid in 2022F, equivalent to VND114bn. The company expects to pay 2022F dividend not less than 15% at par in 2023F. In 1Q22, BFC recorded spectacular growth with a VND2,594bn revenue (+47% yoy) and a VND107bn PBT (+26% yoy), fulfilling 40%/54% of annual guidance. The sales volume in 1Q22 is estimated at 164,000 tonnes.
29
4月
On April 28, we attended BCM’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. On hope for a robust revival, BCM guides net profit to be VND2,888bn, +98% yoy. The company maintains a cash dividend of 8% at par in 2022F. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 28.8 times, nearly the same as the 1-year median of 28.8x and 12MF PB is 4.1x, slightly higher than the 1-year median of 3.5x. The valuation seems lucrative in light of a rosy trajectory.
29
4月
On April 28, MSN held an AGM briefing on its 2022F guidance, 1Q22 business results, and long-term expansion plans. MSN sets 2022F guidance with a Revenue VND90tn – 100tn (from +1% to 11.3% yoy), and NPATMI VND4.8tn – 6.2tn (from -44% to -27.6% yoy). In 2021, MSN recorded a one-off gain from divesting from the feed business. The guidance represents a growth of 22% and 36% yoy, compared to VND74.2tn (excluding feed segment revenue) in FY2021. In FY2021, revenue contribution from only consumer businesses (excluding feed and MHT) was 68%, which is expected to improve to 85% yoy in FY2022. NPAT Pre-MI is expected to be within the range of VND6.9tn and VND8.5tn, a growth of 82% to 124% yoy compared to VND3.8tn in 2021 (which excludes one-time gains/losses and feed segment contribution in 2021).
29
4月
The company achieved a revenue of VND1,577bn (+18% yoy) and a NPAT of VND218bn (+21% yoy) in 2021 driven chemicals price rally amid global supply shortage. In 2022F, the company a VND1,742bn revenue (10% yoy) and VND251bn PBT (-8% yoy). CSV is going to pay a 15% cash dividend at par per year in 2022F-23F. In 1Q22, CSV recorded spectacular growth with a VND483bn revenue (+64% yoy) and a VND140bn PBT (+198% yoy), fulfilling 28%/56% annual guidance.
28
4月
On April 27, we attended SAB’s AGM, briefed on its 2022F guidance and long-term prospects. Overall, SAB sets positive 2022F guidance with a VND34,791bn revenue (+32% yoy), and a VND4,581 PAT (+17% yoy). Per the management, in late 2021 and early 2022, reopening the economy by stimulating tourism and restaurants, led the beer industry to recover strongly. Besides, beer production still faces difficulties owing to scarcity and a spike in raw materials prices. However, SAB has well-prepared input raw materials and ensured enough materials for 2022F due to buying forward contracts and support from ThaiBev. Based on 2022F guidance, 12MF PE is trading at 25.0x, slightly lower than the 2-year median of 25.5x, and 12MF PB is 4.4x, significantly lower than the 2-year median of 5.5x.
27
4月
On April 26, we attended NBB’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. The outbreak still weighs their performance since guidance net profit is pegged at VND102bn, -67.6% yoy despite revenue target of VND800bn, +41.5% yoy.Given the high leverage and tight bond with the major shareholder Construction of Infrastructure JSC (CII VN EQUITY, Not-rated), we stay skeptical about NBB.
27
4月
On April 26, VNM hosted an AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the 2022F guidance and their long-term outlook. VNM sets conservative FY2022F guidance of VND64,070bn revenue, +5% yoy and VND9,720bn NPATMI, -7.7% yoy. The negative profit growth rate implies that gross margin will be hit in 2022F. Per VNM, the earnings of dairy companies will be impacted by the rising in prices of input raw milk and sugar in 2022F. We maintain a HOLD rating with TP VND83,900 underpinned by a sluggish outlook in 2022F-23F. We keep our forecast with a VND65.7tn revenue, +7.9% yoy, and a VND10.9tn NPATMI, +3.9% yoy, EPS could reach VND4,686 in 2022F, implying a 12MF PE of 15.4x.
27
4月
On Apr 26th, we tuned in to DCM’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. The unstoppable price hike of fertilizer throws a spotlight on how far their earnings could stretch. However, DCM’s emphasis on the 2022F guidance seems ambiguous.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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