25
5月
HPG BOD had conservative guidance caused by the uncertainty of geopolitical tension. The BOD supposed that the industry impact caused by the geopolitical tension and the Zero-COVID policy will be shown in the company’s performance in 2Q22 and 3Q22.
19
5月
The April performance witnessed the growth in export volume on year-on-year basis, helping export channel to remain as the key growth driver in 4M22. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 19,331 tonnes (-18.2% mom, -35.3% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 13,756 tonnes (-16.5% mom and -35.3% yoy).
19
5月
The April performance witnessed the weak domestic demand for construction steel. The 4M22 performance witnessed the revival in domestic market, however, the high steel price slowed down the revival pace in April.
19
5月
HSG witnessed the slightly weaker performance in FY7M2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 4 months of 2022. Total Apr steel sales volume posted 175,144 tonnes, increasing by 9.7% mom but decreasing by 18.2% yoy.
13
5月
On May 12, we participated in NVL’s analyst meetings which briefs the presale growth, sales plan and the bottlenecks in credit quota for homebuyers’ mortgage. While we are still upbeat about the unrivaled monetization of NVL’s blockbuster land bank in satellite cities, we could not be relieved of its relentlessly rising net debt. Furthermore, the credit unavailability allocated to developers and homebuyers not only hinders the homebuyers’ purchase decisions but also jeopardise NVL’s fund demand to pay due debts. Give
11
5月
On May 10, we tuned in to 1Q22 VNM’s analyst meeting which features its 1Q22 operational updates and sheds some lights on rebounding revenue and expanding gross margin. VNM pegged domestic market revenue at 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) contributed by parent’s domestic revenue growth of 3.5% yoy (VND10,234bn) and MCM’s revenue growth of 8.6% yoy (VND675bn) in 1Q22. The company stockpiled raw materials until Aug at a costlier price. Given the prices of imported milk powder forward contracts are cooling down, VNM expects to benefit at least from 3Q22F. We maintain a HOLD rating underpinned by a sluggish outlook in 2022F-23F
09
5月
On May 6, we tuned in to the AGM of BCG to be covered with their 2022F guidance related to real estate development and listed plans. In 2022F, BCG eyes a VND7.5tn revenue, 189.7% yoy and a VND1.3tn NPATMI, +116.7% yoy. Three business lines are going to be listed in 2022F-23F including BCG Land, BCG Industrials, BCG Energy. Despite those above tailwinds, we are skeptical of their escalating debt, potential dilution risk, and ample sensitivity to the hospitality property market where the majority of BCG’s projects are tourism/resorts.
06
5月
VNM reported its revenue increased 5% yoy to VND13,878bn in 1Q22 contributed by domestic market revenue of 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) and overseas market revenue of VND2,220bn (+10.3% yoy). The 1Q22 NPAT-MI posted VND2,266bn, -12% yoy. The 1Q22 results fulfilled 21.2%/20.7% of our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts.
06
5月
VHC’s 1Q22 revenue surged 82.8% yoy to VND3,267.6bn and NP leaped 3.2x yoy to VND553.3bn. The high demand of most markets could strongly drive robust export volume and ASP in 2Q22. We reaffirm BUY with a TP of VND121,500
05
5月
We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Apr 29 which features the strategical visibility on Vinfast and sheds some light on its 1Q22 operational updates. Vingroup reported its brisk 1Q22 NPATMI growth of 17.2% yoy (VND2,453.8bn) despite a shrinking revenue growth of 21.7% yoy (VND18.2tn) and a 13%p yoy blended gross margin (GM) contraction (1.1%).
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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