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3Q23 net profit grew +3.4%qoq and -13%yoy to VND5,843bn mainly due to higher operating expenses (+20.5%yoy, CIR: from 29% in 3Q22 to 35% in 3Q23) and a sharp increase in credit provision expense (+55.1%yoy). Meanwhile, total operating income stayed flat (+0.8%yoy), resulting from better than non-interest income (+13%yoy). 9M2023 PBT slumped -17.8%yoy to VND17,115bn, equalling to 78% of the 2023 target and 83% of our 2023 forecasts.

We initiate our coverage on VCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND100,000, implying a 18% upside by using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). VCB still maintained profit growth (+18%yoy in 1H2023) and was not pressured by increasing bad debt like other banks. We forecast that 2024F/2025F BVPS could grow 21%yoy.

In 3Q23, NT2 recorded a significant drop of 62% yoy in revenue. Gross profit and NPAT reported losses of VND 132bn and VND 124bn, respectively. The volume in 3Q23 was 365mn kWh (-59% yoy, -65% qoq), which fulfilled 52% of the 2023 plan, The average selling price was VND2,203 per kWh (+6%yoy, +6%qoq).In 4Q23, we forecast the NT2’s revenue and NPAT are VND1,161bn (-40% yoy,) and VND3bn (-43% yoy).

Total September steel sales volume posted 655,880 tonnes, increased by 9.1% mom and 1.9% yoy. Construction steel volume increased to 352,930 tonnes, +11.2% yoy, +15.0% mom, +17.6% mom. The coated steel sales volume (20,970 tonnes) doubled by -5.8% yoy, +75.5% mom while steel pipes sales volume (49,906 tonnes) fell by 36.8% mom, but enlarged by 17.7% mom. The steel coil sales volume (HRC) was 234,074 tonnes (+2.6% yoy, -3.0% mom).

Total Sep steel sales volume posted 127,058 tonnes, slight increased by 8.1% yoy but went down by 5.7% mom. - Steel coat volume made up 81.1% of the Sep total sales volume at 103,047 tonnes, -6.5% mom and +21.3% yoy. The coated steel export volume (59,649 tonnes) went down by 8.5% mom but still high compare to 2022 (+69.5% yoy).

- Total September steel sales volume posted 53,644 tonnes, decreased by 14.1% yoy and dropped by 28.9% mom. - Steel coat volume made up 83.2% of the Sep total sales volume at 44,633 tonnes, +3.4% yoy, -32.8% mom. - The coated steel export volume (27,616 tonnes) plummeted by 43% mom but rose 19.7% yoy.

Total Aug steel sales volume posted 134,778 tonnes, surged by 32.7% yoy and increased by 4.9% mom. Steel coat volume made up 81.8% of the May total sales volume at 110,250 tonnes, +9.6% mom and +47.3% yoy.

Total August steel sales volume posted 75,474 tonnes, increasing 35.2% yoy and decreasing 4.3% mom. Steel coat volume made up 88% of the May total sales volume at 66,445 tonnes, +53.9% yoy, -1.8% mom. The coated steel export volume (48,686 tonnes) slightly decreased by 2.7% mom but rose 68.1% yoy.

Total August steel sales volume posted 600,992 tonnes, decreased by 8.7% mom and 15.7% yoy. Construction steel volume decreased to 306,943 tonnes, -20.7% yoy, +17.6% mom. The coated steel sales volume (11,952 tonnes) halved by 58.2% yoy, -62.9% mom. The steel coil sales volume (HRC) was 241,402 tonnes (+3.4% yoy -17.1% mom). In which, export volume returned to 114,165 tonnes in August.

BHX’s Aug sales soared to VND2.9tn (+3.5% mom, + 20% yoy), which was attributed to higher bill numbers (+4% mom) and fresh volume (+10% mom). TGDD and DMX’ Aug sales continued to decrease to VND6.8tn (+0.0% mom, -13% yoy) but being a slowdown compared to the drop of 25% yoy in June and 20% yoy in July, which was driven by the positive yoy growth of laptops and white products.