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Total Feb steel sales volume posted 102,259 tonnes, dropping by 35.0% yoy but increasing 20.0% mom. The FY5M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 41.2% yoy to 527,462 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 22.8% yoy to 121,279 tonnes and steel coat fell 45.2% yoy to 406,183 tonnes.

Vinh Hoan delivered a preliminary VND758bn revenue, decreasing 29.5% yoy since the pangasius export shrunk by 46.9% yoy in Feb. The pangasius export volume decreased sharply by 26.4% yoy due to the lessened import of US and China markets.

On Mar 10, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) held the Annual General Meeting. The company sets conservative FY2023 guidance with 2 scenario due to the uncertainty from geopolitical conflicts and global high borrowing-rate environment.

On Feb 10, 2023 Novaland held a meeting which gave the audience a walkthrough of the its restricting plan and cash flow. - The company did not hint a glimpse of relief about its due debt payment source but reassures us about its on progress restricting plan. To save money, NVL even procrastinates the interest subsidy program in those current projects and promises to pay back when signing the official contract.

SAB recorded a solid revenue of VND10.0tn revenue (+11.4% yoy, +16.1% yoy) due to high demand due to football events such as AFF, World Cup, and the early Lunar new year holiday, and NPAT-MI of VND1.0tn (-20.3% yoy, -22.3 qoq) owing to a sharp increase of selling expenses. For 2022, SAB revenue and NPAT-MI increased by 33% yoy and 42% yoy to VND35.2tn and VND5.2tn, respectively, fulfilling 101%/113% of guidance.

VNM lost domestic market share in 2022 due to restructuring GM (General Trade vs 85% revenue) and MT (Modern Trade vs 15% revenue). Domestic sell-in dropped yoy owing to distribution channel duplication, while domestic sell-out has increased 3-5% yoy in 2022. Although management viewed a conservative outlook for consumer spending, they expect VNM to get positive sales growth in 2023F.

In 4Q22, Vinh Hoan posted VND2,484bn revenue (-7.8% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by -25.9% yoy and -61.1% yoy decrease of export revenue to US and China. Whilst, Vinh Hoan’s 4Q22 NPAT posted VND199.6bn (-56.7% yoy), plunged by lower gross margin due to the flattening at hefty raw material amid the strong tumble selling price.

We introduce a favorable 2023F-24F earnings forecast with net profit of VND774bn (+6.1% yoy) and VND838bn (+8.3% yoy), respectively due to (1) waning La Nina effect, (2) rising power consumption demand and (3) tight coal supply problems. Thus, we recommend BUY in response to sustainable earnings growth prospects and favorable dividend yield.

This quarter’s top line recorded VND1,367bn (-22% qoq, -16% yoy) which was hit by decreases of all income sources from FVTPL gain, brokerage, IB and margin lending. The operating expenses stayed flat qoq but financial expenses ramped up by 38.4% qoq and 256% yoy. As a result, net profit was hit significantly, downed to VND42bn (-91% qoq, -93% yoy). As of Nov 7, VND is trading at market price of VND10,450, equal to 0.93x TTM PB. Current valuation is lower than 3-year average PB of 1.68x and median PB of 1.53x and approaching -1 SD milestone at around 0.86x.

Overall, SAB recorded a solid 3Q22 business result with a VND8.6tn revenue (+101% yoy), and VND1.3tn NPAT-MI (+202% yoy) due to a significant low base in 3Q21 when applying lock down measures. For 9M22, SAB revenue and NPAT-MI went up by 44% yoy and 77% yoy to VND25tn and VND4.2tn, respectively, fulfilling 72%/91% of guidance.