19
4月
NKG-Brief-[HOLD]-The m-o-m recovery to continue
Total Mar steel sales volume posted 83,590 tonnes, increasing by 23.4% mom but -17.8% yoy. The 3M23 total sales volume came in at 194,698 tonnes, -24.3% yoy.
19
4月
Total Mar steel sales volume posted 83,590 tonnes, increasing by 23.4% mom but -17.8% yoy. The 3M23 total sales volume came in at 194,698 tonnes, -24.3% yoy.
19
4月
Total Mar steel sales volume posted 567,651 tonnes, decreasing by 39.1% yoy but increasing by 3.3% mom. The total Mar domestic sales volume rised by 0.9% mom to 487,134 tonnes.
17
4月
Sao Ta Foods secured in the Top 3 Vietnamese shrimp exporters with USD217.7mn export value (in 2022). Although our outlook on the shrimp industry in 2023 would slow down, we believe Sao Ta Food could increase 5.8% yoy revenue and +16.4% yoy NPAT in 2023. In the other hand, the capacity increase and farming system expansion would be the long-term drivers. As such, we initiate FMC with a BUY rating on stable growth, sustainable strategy in long-term prospect .
17
4月
We initiate our coverage on PV GAS (GAS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND117,700 implying a 18.8% upside by using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. In DCF method, we calculate the fair value of VND122,500/share with implied long-term growth of 4.0%, and WACC of 11.5%. With PE method, our target price is based on an average 2023-25F P/E of 18x. GAS is our top pick in oil & gas sector thanks to strong growth potential based on the high demand for natural gas and LNG in Vietnam. The risks of GAS comprise a drop of oil prices and delaying projects.
17
4月
We initiate our coverage on PVD with a BUY rating and target price of VND28,850 implying a 37.8% upside by using a DCF (70%) and PB (30%) methodology. In DCF method, we calculate the fair value of VND29,400/share with implied long-term growth of 3.0%, and WACC of 12.3%. Our target price is based on an average 2023-25F PB of 1.0x arose from PVD’s firm position to benefit from rising demand for drilling in Southeast markets. The most significant risk of PVD is a drop of oil prices weighting on day rates and outlook.
13
4月
PVT targets a conservative 2023F plan with VND6.8tn revenue (-24.4% yoy), and a VND538bn PAT (-53.5% yoy), however, the management is confident to exceed the plan. Capex in 2023F is estimated to be VND4.1tn mainly including the new 6 ships buying cost, Capex was financed by 35% equity and 65% debt.
11
4月
TNG posted a positive Mar performance with revenue of VND561bn (+35.8% yoy, +50% mom). Nonetheless, the rosy Mar could not save 1Q23. Specifically, 1Q23 revenue came in at VND1,333bn (+6% yoy but -12% qoq). Therefore, the company fulfilled 18% of its 2023F planned revenue in 1Q23. The 1Q23 revenue growth is largely attributable to the US market.
30
3月
On Mar 30, Hoa Phat Group (HPG) held the Annual General Meeting. The company targets a VND150,000bn revenue and a VND8,000bn NPAT amid weak demand. The company has been approved to not pay dividends for 2022.
15
3月
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 67,738 tonnes, increasing by 56.2% mom and 9.7% yoy. The 2M23 total sales volume came in at 111,108 tonnes, -28.6% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 33.7% yoy to 85,285 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 4.2% yoy to 25,823 tonnes.
15
3月
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 549,767 tonnes, decreasing by 30.6% yoy but increasing by 18.5% mom. The 2M23 total finished-product sale volume dropped significantly to 1,013,881 tonnes, -32.2% yoy. Of which, all products sale volumes declined due to high base in 2022.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.