02
12月
Long position on VN30F2212 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 945 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term consolidation phase in order to capture the better entry. (Hourly chart)
15
11月
The VNIndex’s downtrend is dominant in the short term as the new bottom is below the 1,000-pts threshold.
15
11月
Market ended up to be net bought. Real Estate, Financials, and Consumer Staples, focusing on KDH, VHM, SSI, VND, BID, DGC, and VNM. With ETF flow, inflow remained at Vietnam. Net inflow was USD76mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on Fubon.
15
11月
The total revenue growth momentum of listed garment companies was maintained in 3Q22 when posting 27.0% compared to 25.8% in 2Q22. the earnings growth pace spiked from 22.6%% yoy in 2Q22 to 59.0% yoy in 3Q22 thanks to the low base effect as the Southern region was in a lockdown period in 3Q21. Whereas, listed yarn makers witnessed decent growth figures in 3Q22. Specifically, the revenue growth pace in 3Q22 was 16.7% yoy compared to only 5.5% yoy in 2Q22. Net profit growth of yarn companies also jumped to 12.7% yoy in 3Q22 from 1.2% yoy in 2Q22.
15
11月
Revenue of ICT/Jewelry/Automobile/Airport retailers in 3Q22 respectively surged by 35.3%/700%/176%/700% yoy driven by the recover from extreme closure during the lockdown in 3Q21. Retailers and retail lessors are hectic preparing for the largest sale season in the year, including the Single Day 11/11, Black Friday 25/11 and Christmas 24/12.
15
11月
In 3Q22, hydropower generators’ revenue and NPAT-MI went up 58% yoy and 126% yoy thanks to La Nina. The coal and input gas prices in 2023F are projected to slow down compared to the towering price in 2022. Coupled with the waning La Nina, we believe that EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.
15
11月
Breweries led F&B’s revenue and earnings growth in 3Q22, the aggregated revenue and earnings growth of 14 listed brewery producers accelerated sharply in 3Q22 compared to a low base in 3Q21. The revenue accelerated to 84% yoy compared to 21.9% yoy in 2Q22. Besides, beer producers achieved brisk net profit growth of 160% yoy compared to 60.6% yoy in 2Q22.
15
11月
In Sep and Oct 2022, hydropower output surged 17% yoy thanks to La Nina effect. Coal-fired power volume dropped to 14.9bn kWh (-6% yoy) owing to surging global coal price (+105% yoy) and tight coal supply. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023F, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.
15
11月
The downtrend is dominant in the short term as the VNIndex closes the 1,000-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.
15
11月
Short VN30F2211 near 940 pts level if there is the intraday rebound phase, stop the loss when there is the closing price above 980 pts level. (Hourly chart)
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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