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On October24, POW organized the analyst meeting. In 9M23, revenue and NPAT was VND21,119bn and VND861bn, respectively. The volume in 9MQ23 was 11,149mn kWh (+10% yoy), which fulfilled 71.5% of the 2023 plan. In 4Q23, we estimate revenue and NPAT to be VND7,390bn (+40% qoq, -4% yoy) and VND235bn (+684% qoq, -68% yoy), respectively.

We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Oct 31 which featured the strategic visibility on Vinfast and shed some colors on its 3Q23 operational updates. Vingroup’s 3Q23 NPAT was resilient at VND567.3bn (12% yoy, 169.3% qoq), thanks to a combination of the brisk revenue growth of 68% yoy, 1.7% qoq to VND47.9tn and other income of VND6,619bn. However, the NPATMI was in red territory at VND669bn.

During this period, short positions are extremely risky due to the high volatile market move. In order to reduce the risk, trader should wait for the consolidation phase to capture the good entry.

Selling pressure intensifies suddenly again, causing the stock market to decrease heavily during the session. Notably, the important support zone of the 1,080-1,100 points zone is broken with high liquidity, indicating a selling signal. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal. The next time, if the market appears recovery session, investors should be careful with their investment decisions. Because the downside risk is at a high level and more probability it is a Bull Trap.

On Oct 24, we attended VHM’s 3Q23, and the presentation covered how the “King” fared better. VHM announced the 3Q23 results with a VND32.5tn revenue (82.6% yoy) and a VND10.7tn NPATMI (-26.2% yoy) in light of the absence of bulk sale transaction in financial income of VND10.9tn in 3Q22. VHM rock the market with its 9M23 revenue of VND94.tn, and NPAT of VND32.4tn, completion of 94/106% of their full-year estimate.

Although still weak, the return of inflow helps the stock market to experience a gain day again with declined liquidity. That shows positive signals, however, that could also be a Bull Trap. The downside risk is still intact and quite significant as the VNIndex maintains to end below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.

The current rebound phase is ended. Subsequent bearish candles have faded rebound phase and increase the risk for holding long positions. Besides, MA200 is reached which means new short positions are risky. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for valid trading signal.

3Q23 net profit grew +3.4%qoq and -13%yoy to VND5,843bn mainly due to higher operating expenses (+20.5%yoy, CIR: from 29% in 3Q22 to 35% in 3Q23) and a sharp increase in credit provision expense (+55.1%yoy). Meanwhile, total operating income stayed flat (+0.8%yoy), resulting from better than non-interest income (+13%yoy). 9M2023 PBT slumped -17.8%yoy to VND17,115bn, equalling to 78% of the 2023 target and 83% of our 2023 forecasts.

Liquidity condition in the money market this week seems to be tight after a series of bill offerings, with the interbank rate for short tenors surging on the last trading day. ON, 1-week, 2-week, and 1-month rates rose by 89bps, 97bps, 95bps, and 65bps, respectively. Also, the trading and winning G-bond yields continuously rose, especially in the mid and long tenors, likely reflecting the rising yields environment returned.. With a dominating newly offering amount, SBV likely signals to the market participants that the balance point for short-term funding costs could be higher unless USDVND cools down significantly.

In general, outflow pressure has slowed down but demand was still weak. In this case, we expect that Vietnam would experience the flat net flow in upcoming weeks due to the slowdown of outflow.