Market Analysis

All

Macro

Macro Insight

Fixed Income

No news available

Loading news...

Featured news

14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter

This week, the SBV stepped up liquidity injections as demand picked up at the start of 2nd quarter after credit room was largely used up in the previous one, alongside elevated interbank rates and continued upward pressure on USDVND. Interbank rates have since eased following strong OMO injections, especially at medium tenors, while trading volumes rose, signaling a rebound in liquidity demand. On the FX front, USDVND extended its uptrend for a sixth consecutive week, though at a slower pace, as the greenback softened slightly but remained elevated amid ongoing Middle East tensions.

April 7, 2026

Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook

The stock market faces significant short-term pressure as rising oil prices create inflationary pressure and slow economic growth. However, market valuations have become attractive, with over 75% of tracked stocks at undervaluation and the economy's long-term recovery.

April 7, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

Vietnam’s economic performance in March and the first quarter showed solid momentum. Trade and industrial production remained resilient, while consumption stayed robust, supported by record tourist arrivals. FDI inflows were a key highlight, recording impressive growth. GDP expanded by 7.83% in 1Q26 — marking the highest first-quarter growth in over a decade, even as the pace moderated slightly from the previous quarter, these impressive figures continue to paint a bright and promising picture so far. However, downside risks are emerging more rapidly and severely than expected. Inflation accelerated sharply in March, almost single-handedly driven by surging energy prices amid the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Should the energy crisis persist, inflationary pressures could intensify further and spill over to other goods and services. This, in turn, risks adding a somber dark shade to the bright economic canvas that has been so promisingly painted and poses challenges to Vietnam’s ambitious double-digit growth target—especially as even stronger growth will be needed in the coming quarters to sustain the current trajectory.

April 6, 2026

13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists

In 13W26, the SBV conducted a modest net liquidity injection into the banking system by rolling over repo operations to offset a substantial value of maturing repos. This action aimed to mitigate immediate upward pressure on interbank rates as liquidity conditions remained tight. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fifth consecutive week amid persistent Middle East tensions, elevated global inflation risks, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and sustained domestic foreign capital outflows.

March 30, 2026

12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions

In 12W26, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace as funding demand in the banking system normalized. On the interbank market, short term rates edged higher while longer tenors remained broadly unchanged, consistent with the SBV withdrawal stance. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fourth consecutive week as escalating Middle East conflicts fueled global inflation pressures, impacting the Fed's interest rate trajectory and maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts. Domestically, these global uncertainties combined with sustained foreign capital outflows continued to weigh on the exchange rate.

March 23, 2026

11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

In 11W26, the SBV shifted to a substantial net liquidity withdrawal to absorb excess funds as post holiday funding pressure fully subsided, while interbank rates showed a clear divergence as short term rates continued to ease amid cautious sentiment. On the FX front, USDVND continued to rise for a third consecutive week as the greenback regained strength amid escalating tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Iran. The heightened geopolitical risks have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supply, which in turn has supported demand for the U.S. dollar while putting pressure on many currencies.

March 16, 2026

10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates

In 10W26, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection by rolling over repo contracts to prevent system tightening, while interbank rates eased as funding demand stabilized. On the FX front, USDVND climbed as the greenback regained strength amid escalating Middle East conflicts and renewed tariff concerns. Globally, the dollar was supported by safe haven demand as inflation risks remained elevated, leading the market to continue to expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming meeting despite a softer labor market. Domestically, the exchange rate faced additional pressure from sustained foreign capital outflows on the equity market, pushing both bank and shadow market rates higher.

March 9, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

The latest socio-economic report indicates that economic activity in Vietnam slowed noticeably in February, largely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production and trade volumes softened during this period as many businesses temporarily suspended or reduced operations to accommodate family gatherings and festive preparations. Meanwhile, inflation picked up more clearly, driven by stronger consumer demand ahead of the celebrations, particularly for food, goods, and services, although these seasonal price pressures are expected to ease gradually and return to normal levels in the coming months as the holiday effects fade. Looking ahead, external risks are intensifying amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. These developments could drive commodity prices higher, primarily through supply disruptions and pass-through effects on global energy prices, thereby raising inflation risks in the period ahead. Should these pressures persist, they would pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, with direct implications for Vietnam’s economy in the coming months.

March 6, 2026

Strategic Insight: Wait for signals from global markets

We believe the upward trend will quickly resume, driven by expectations that the conflict in the Middle East will come to a swift conclusion. Additionally, the sharp correction seen during the first trading week of March has made market valuations more attractive, as the number of undervalued stocks has increased.

March 6, 2026

9W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

In 9W26, the SBV shifted to a substantial net liquidity withdrawal to absorb the excess funds returning to the banking system after the heavy net injections prior to the Lunar New Year. On the interbank market, rates showed a clear divergence as the overnight rate declined due to abundant immediate liquidity, while longer term rates rose as banks prepared for potential tightening once pre Tet repo contracts begin to mature. On the FX front, USDVND ticked up despite the slight decline in the US dollar which coincided with sustained foreign selling pressure on the HoSE, which exerted upward pressure on the exchange rate.

March 2, 2026

7W26: SBV continue to injects liquidity ahead of Tet holiday

This week, the SBV maintained net liquidity injections, albeit at a moderate level, as the Tet holiday approaches. On the interbank market, short term rates eased alongside lower trading volume, indicating that funding demand has cooled ahead of the holiday following the SBV’s heavy liquidity injections in previous weeks. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways as the slight decline in the US dollar was offset by the return of significant foreign net buying on the HOSE, which exerted upward pressure on the exchange rate.

February 23, 2026

Strategic Insight: Attractive market valuation

After a correction period in late January 2026, market valuations became attractive, with approximately 63% of valued stocks trading at undervaluations. Therefore, we believe the market will quickly recover in the coming period.

February 14, 2026

6W26: SBV conducts aggressive liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year

This week, the SBV maintained strong net liquidity injections as funding demand intensified ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. On the interbank market, rates heated up amid surging demand, with overnight rates spiking to around 20% early in the week before easing to above 10% by Friday. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher, mainly reflecting sustained net foreign selling on the stock market, while the US dollar remained under pressure amid expectations surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook. Looking ahead, we expect interbank conditions to remain volatile in the coming weeks ahead of the holiday, suggesting that the SBV is likely to continue supporting the banking system via OMO.

February 9, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.

February 6, 2026

5W26: SBV shifts to net injection

This week, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection stance after three consecutive weeks of withdrawing funds from the system. On the interbank market, rates continued to trend upward across most tenors especially at the short end as liquidity remained tight following previous net withdrawals. On the FX front, USDVND cooled significantly while the greenback lost momentum globally following the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady and news surrounding the nomination of a new Fed chair.

February 2, 2026

4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal

In the fourth week of 2026, the SBV continued to withdraw liquidity from the banking system, primarily by allowing previously injected repo contracts to mature, thereby reducing outstanding balances. Specifically on the interbank market, rates increased as a result of three consecutive weeks of net liquidity withdrawal by the SBV. On the FX front, USDVND cooled further as the greenback lost momentum, driven by recent developments between the United States and its trading partners, which have intensified concerns over the outlook for the US dollar.

January 26, 2026

3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal

This week, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressure in the banking system eased. On the interbank market, the interbank curve flattened, with short tenor rates edging up while longer tenors declined. Additionally with lower trading volume, this suggests that funding pressure continues to cool, with demand shifting toward shorter tenors ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways, as if it waited for further developments from the United States, including upcoming Supreme Court rulings. These outcomes are expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s independence and the extent of the Trump administration’s influence over the remainder of his term.

January 20, 2026

Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?

The market's upward trend will be supported by strong improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, we believe the current uptrend will continue until February, after which the market will undergo a correction before it forms a new growth trend in the second half of 2026.

January 14, 2026

2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases

This week, the SBV shifted back to net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressures in the banking system eased at the start of the year. On the interbank market, rates declined sharply across most maturities, while trading volume also dropped significantly, indicating that funding demand has cooled after the sharp tightening observed previously. On the FX front, USDVND continued to ease amid expectations of more accommodative Fed rate policies. In addition, year end remittance inflows and a consistent four-week streak of foreign net buying also contributed to the calmer exchange rate dynamics. As the economy enters a new phase with ambitious growth objectives, we expect the SBV to maintain a supportive stance to ensure smooth functioning of the banking system.

January 13, 2026

12M25: The Dawn of National Rise

Vietnam’s economy recorded a strong acceleration toward year-end, underpinned by the combined strength of domestic resilience and renewed momentum in external trade. Real GDP growth remained aligned with national targets, driven primarily by a robust rebound in exports, underscoring Vietnam’s sustained competitiveness despite persistent tariff-related pressures throughout the year. At the same time, record-high FDI disbursement reaffirmed the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital. Domestically, growth was supported by solid fundamentals, as industrial production and retail sales posted encouraging gains, while household consumption and hospitality services continued to serve as key pillars of expansion despite disruptions caused by natural disasters, with inflation remaining well contained. Overall, Vietnam closed a volatile 2025 on a resilient and well-anchored macroeconomic footing, setting the stage for the next phase of national ascent and more ambitious long-term objectives.

January 6, 2026

Featured promotions

14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter

April 7, 2026

Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook

April 7, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

April 6, 2026

13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists

March 30, 2026

12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions

March 23, 2026

11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 16, 2026

10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates

March 9, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

March 6, 2026

Strategic Insight: Wait for signals from global markets

March 6, 2026

9W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 2, 2026

7W26: SBV continue to injects liquidity ahead of Tet holiday

February 23, 2026

Strategic Insight: Attractive market valuation

February 14, 2026

6W26: SBV conducts aggressive liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year

February 9, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

February 6, 2026

5W26: SBV shifts to net injection

February 2, 2026

4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal

January 26, 2026

3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal

January 20, 2026

Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?

January 14, 2026

2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases

January 13, 2026

12M25: The Dawn of National Rise

January 6, 2026

Featured promotions

14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter

April 7, 2026

Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook

April 7, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

April 6, 2026

13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists

March 30, 2026

12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions

March 23, 2026

11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 16, 2026

10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates

March 9, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

March 6, 2026

Strategic Insight: Wait for signals from global markets

March 6, 2026

9W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 2, 2026

7W26: SBV continue to injects liquidity ahead of Tet holiday

February 23, 2026

Strategic Insight: Attractive market valuation

February 14, 2026

6W26: SBV conducts aggressive liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year

February 9, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

February 6, 2026

5W26: SBV shifts to net injection

February 2, 2026

4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal

January 26, 2026

3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal

January 20, 2026

Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?

January 14, 2026

2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases

January 13, 2026

12M25: The Dawn of National Rise

January 6, 2026