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18W26: SBV maintains net liquidity injection as funding demand spikes

In 18W26, SBV maintains liquidity injections, albeit at a moderate level, to the banking system during holiday week. Specifically, interbank rates rise on short tenors due to increased funding demand ahead of the holiday, while longer-term rates remain stable. In the FX market, USDVND edges higher despite a softening greenback, driven by holiday-related domestic demand and persistent foreign net selling in the equity market.

May 6, 2026

Apr 2026: Medium issuances led by Real Estate and Bank industries

In April, total value of bond issuance declined 20.1% yoy but rose 12.1% mom to VND38,235bn. The Real Estate issued VND13,776bn, -42.1% mom, and accounted for 36.0%. Major issuer was MADC (VND6,200bn) and VHM (VND6,000bn). The Banking issued VND15,100bn with -53.1% yoy, +153.3% mom and accounting for 39.5% of total issuance. TCB was the main issuer with VND6,000bn. The average coupon rate remained 5.3% in April 2026. The Real Estate coupon rate surged to 11.3%, while the banking coupon rate fell to 8.5%. Bond tenors focused on ≤ 3 Years (92.6%).

May 6, 2026

4M26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.

May 4, 2026

17W26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

May 4, 2026

16W26: SBV continues net withdrawal as demand cools

This week, the SBV extended its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace, as funding demand eased. Interbank rates declined across tenors alongside lower trading volumes, signalling a continued cooling in liquidity demand, while USDVND entered a consolidation phase. On the FX front, USDVND edged slightly higher despite a softer greenback, as easing tensions in the Middle East reduced upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

April 21, 2026

15W26: SBV shifts to net liquidity withdrawal as demand cools down

In 15W26, the SBV shifts to a net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system following a week of strong injections, as funding demand begins to cool down. Consequently, interbank rates exhibit a diverging trend; short end rates rise due to heavy repo maturities, while longer term rates decrease slightly as mid-term liquidity remains stable. On the FX front, USDVND edges lower after six consecutive weeks of gains, tracking a significant softening of the greenback as U.S.–Iran tensions enter a negotiation phase and global energy prices decline.

April 13, 2026

14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter

This week, the SBV stepped up liquidity injections as demand picked up at the start of 2nd quarter after credit room was largely used up in the previous one, alongside elevated interbank rates and continued upward pressure on USDVND. Interbank rates have since eased following strong OMO injections, especially at medium tenors, while trading volumes rose, signaling a rebound in liquidity demand. On the FX front, USDVND extended its uptrend for a sixth consecutive week, though at a slower pace, as the greenback softened slightly but remained elevated amid ongoing Middle East tensions.

April 7, 2026

Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook

The stock market faces significant short-term pressure as rising oil prices create inflationary pressure and slow economic growth. However, market valuations have become attractive, with over 75% of tracked stocks at undervaluation and the economy's long-term recovery.

April 7, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

Vietnam’s economic performance in March and the first quarter showed solid momentum. Trade and industrial production remained resilient, while consumption stayed robust, supported by record tourist arrivals. FDI inflows were a key highlight, recording impressive growth. GDP expanded by 7.83% in 1Q26 — marking the highest first-quarter growth in over a decade, even as the pace moderated slightly from the previous quarter, these impressive figures continue to paint a bright and promising picture so far. However, downside risks are emerging more rapidly and severely than expected. Inflation accelerated sharply in March, almost single-handedly driven by surging energy prices amid the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Should the energy crisis persist, inflationary pressures could intensify further and spill over to other goods and services. This, in turn, risks adding a somber dark shade to the bright economic canvas that has been so promisingly painted and poses challenges to Vietnam’s ambitious double-digit growth target—especially as even stronger growth will be needed in the coming quarters to sustain the current trajectory.

April 6, 2026

13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists

In 13W26, the SBV conducted a modest net liquidity injection into the banking system by rolling over repo operations to offset a substantial value of maturing repos. This action aimed to mitigate immediate upward pressure on interbank rates as liquidity conditions remained tight. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fifth consecutive week amid persistent Middle East tensions, elevated global inflation risks, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and sustained domestic foreign capital outflows.

March 30, 2026

12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions

In 12W26, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace as funding demand in the banking system normalized. On the interbank market, short term rates edged higher while longer tenors remained broadly unchanged, consistent with the SBV withdrawal stance. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fourth consecutive week as escalating Middle East conflicts fueled global inflation pressures, impacting the Fed's interest rate trajectory and maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts. Domestically, these global uncertainties combined with sustained foreign capital outflows continued to weigh on the exchange rate.

March 23, 2026

11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

In 11W26, the SBV shifted to a substantial net liquidity withdrawal to absorb excess funds as post holiday funding pressure fully subsided, while interbank rates showed a clear divergence as short term rates continued to ease amid cautious sentiment. On the FX front, USDVND continued to rise for a third consecutive week as the greenback regained strength amid escalating tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Iran. The heightened geopolitical risks have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supply, which in turn has supported demand for the U.S. dollar while putting pressure on many currencies.

March 16, 2026

10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates

In 10W26, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection by rolling over repo contracts to prevent system tightening, while interbank rates eased as funding demand stabilized. On the FX front, USDVND climbed as the greenback regained strength amid escalating Middle East conflicts and renewed tariff concerns. Globally, the dollar was supported by safe haven demand as inflation risks remained elevated, leading the market to continue to expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming meeting despite a softer labor market. Domestically, the exchange rate faced additional pressure from sustained foreign capital outflows on the equity market, pushing both bank and shadow market rates higher.

March 9, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

The latest socio-economic report indicates that economic activity in Vietnam slowed noticeably in February, largely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production and trade volumes softened during this period as many businesses temporarily suspended or reduced operations to accommodate family gatherings and festive preparations. Meanwhile, inflation picked up more clearly, driven by stronger consumer demand ahead of the celebrations, particularly for food, goods, and services, although these seasonal price pressures are expected to ease gradually and return to normal levels in the coming months as the holiday effects fade. Looking ahead, external risks are intensifying amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. These developments could drive commodity prices higher, primarily through supply disruptions and pass-through effects on global energy prices, thereby raising inflation risks in the period ahead. Should these pressures persist, they would pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, with direct implications for Vietnam’s economy in the coming months.

March 6, 2026

Strategic Insight: Wait for signals from global markets

We believe the upward trend will quickly resume, driven by expectations that the conflict in the Middle East will come to a swift conclusion. Additionally, the sharp correction seen during the first trading week of March has made market valuations more attractive, as the number of undervalued stocks has increased.

March 6, 2026

9W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

In 9W26, the SBV shifted to a substantial net liquidity withdrawal to absorb the excess funds returning to the banking system after the heavy net injections prior to the Lunar New Year. On the interbank market, rates showed a clear divergence as the overnight rate declined due to abundant immediate liquidity, while longer term rates rose as banks prepared for potential tightening once pre Tet repo contracts begin to mature. On the FX front, USDVND ticked up despite the slight decline in the US dollar which coincided with sustained foreign selling pressure on the HoSE, which exerted upward pressure on the exchange rate.

March 2, 2026

7W26: SBV continue to injects liquidity ahead of Tet holiday

This week, the SBV maintained net liquidity injections, albeit at a moderate level, as the Tet holiday approaches. On the interbank market, short term rates eased alongside lower trading volume, indicating that funding demand has cooled ahead of the holiday following the SBV’s heavy liquidity injections in previous weeks. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways as the slight decline in the US dollar was offset by the return of significant foreign net buying on the HOSE, which exerted upward pressure on the exchange rate.

February 23, 2026

Strategic Insight: Attractive market valuation

After a correction period in late January 2026, market valuations became attractive, with approximately 63% of valued stocks trading at undervaluations. Therefore, we believe the market will quickly recover in the coming period.

February 14, 2026

6W26: SBV conducts aggressive liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year

This week, the SBV maintained strong net liquidity injections as funding demand intensified ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. On the interbank market, rates heated up amid surging demand, with overnight rates spiking to around 20% early in the week before easing to above 10% by Friday. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher, mainly reflecting sustained net foreign selling on the stock market, while the US dollar remained under pressure amid expectations surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook. Looking ahead, we expect interbank conditions to remain volatile in the coming weeks ahead of the holiday, suggesting that the SBV is likely to continue supporting the banking system via OMO.

February 9, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.

February 6, 2026

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18W26: SBV maintains net liquidity injection as funding demand spikes

May 6, 2026

Apr 2026: Medium issuances led by Real Estate and Bank industries

May 6, 2026

4M26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

May 4, 2026

17W26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

May 4, 2026

16W26: SBV continues net withdrawal as demand cools

April 21, 2026

15W26: SBV shifts to net liquidity withdrawal as demand cools down

April 13, 2026

14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter

April 7, 2026

Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook

April 7, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

April 6, 2026

13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists

March 30, 2026

12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions

March 23, 2026

11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 16, 2026

10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates

March 9, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

March 6, 2026

Strategic Insight: Wait for signals from global markets

March 6, 2026

9W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 2, 2026

7W26: SBV continue to injects liquidity ahead of Tet holiday

February 23, 2026

Strategic Insight: Attractive market valuation

February 14, 2026

6W26: SBV conducts aggressive liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year

February 9, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

February 6, 2026

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18W26: SBV maintains net liquidity injection as funding demand spikes

May 6, 2026

Apr 2026: Medium issuances led by Real Estate and Bank industries

May 6, 2026

4M26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

May 4, 2026

17W26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

May 4, 2026

16W26: SBV continues net withdrawal as demand cools

April 21, 2026

15W26: SBV shifts to net liquidity withdrawal as demand cools down

April 13, 2026

14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter

April 7, 2026

Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook

April 7, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

April 6, 2026

13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists

March 30, 2026

12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions

March 23, 2026

11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 16, 2026

10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates

March 9, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

March 6, 2026

Strategic Insight: Wait for signals from global markets

March 6, 2026

9W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates

March 2, 2026

7W26: SBV continue to injects liquidity ahead of Tet holiday

February 23, 2026

Strategic Insight: Attractive market valuation

February 14, 2026

6W26: SBV conducts aggressive liquidity injections ahead of Lunar New Year

February 9, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

February 6, 2026