市场分析
暂无新闻
精选新闻
1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year
Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.2026年2月6日
5W26: SBV shifts to net injection
This week, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection stance after three consecutive weeks of withdrawing funds from the system. On the interbank market, rates continued to trend upward across most tenors especially at the short end as liquidity remained tight following previous net withdrawals. On the FX front, USDVND cooled significantly while the greenback lost momentum globally following the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady and news surrounding the nomination of a new Fed chair.2026年2月2日
4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal
In the fourth week of 2026, the SBV continued to withdraw liquidity from the banking system, primarily by allowing previously injected repo contracts to mature, thereby reducing outstanding balances. Specifically on the interbank market, rates increased as a result of three consecutive weeks of net liquidity withdrawal by the SBV. On the FX front, USDVND cooled further as the greenback lost momentum, driven by recent developments between the United States and its trading partners, which have intensified concerns over the outlook for the US dollar.2026年1月26日
3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal
This week, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressure in the banking system eased. On the interbank market, the interbank curve flattened, with short tenor rates edging up while longer tenors declined. Additionally with lower trading volume, this suggests that funding pressure continues to cool, with demand shifting toward shorter tenors ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways, as if it waited for further developments from the United States, including upcoming Supreme Court rulings. These outcomes are expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s independence and the extent of the Trump administration’s influence over the remainder of his term.2026年1月20日
Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?
The market's upward trend will be supported by strong improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, we believe the current uptrend will continue until February, after which the market will undergo a correction before it forms a new growth trend in the second half of 2026.2026年1月14日
2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases
This week, the SBV shifted back to net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressures in the banking system eased at the start of the year. On the interbank market, rates declined sharply across most maturities, while trading volume also dropped significantly, indicating that funding demand has cooled after the sharp tightening observed previously. On the FX front, USDVND continued to ease amid expectations of more accommodative Fed rate policies. In addition, year end remittance inflows and a consistent four-week streak of foreign net buying also contributed to the calmer exchange rate dynamics. As the economy enters a new phase with ambitious growth objectives, we expect the SBV to maintain a supportive stance to ensure smooth functioning of the banking system.2026年1月13日
12M25: The Dawn of National Rise
Vietnam’s economy recorded a strong acceleration toward year-end, underpinned by the combined strength of domestic resilience and renewed momentum in external trade. Real GDP growth remained aligned with national targets, driven primarily by a robust rebound in exports, underscoring Vietnam’s sustained competitiveness despite persistent tariff-related pressures throughout the year. At the same time, record-high FDI disbursement reaffirmed the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital. Domestically, growth was supported by solid fundamentals, as industrial production and retail sales posted encouraging gains, while household consumption and hospitality services continued to serve as key pillars of expansion despite disruptions caused by natural disasters, with inflation remaining well contained. Overall, Vietnam closed a volatile 2025 on a resilient and well-anchored macroeconomic footing, setting the stage for the next phase of national ascent and more ambitious long-term objectives.2026年1月6日
1W26: SBV maintains liquidity support ahead of the Tet holiday
In the final sessions of the year, the SBV sustained its net liquidity injection via OMO to facilitate peak credit disbursement activity across the banking system. On the interbank market, rates spiked across all tenors, primarily driven by the technical holiday effect and intense year-end funding pressure. On the FX front, USDVND remained largely flat despite a stronger US dollar globally, anchored by consistent foreign net buying.2026年1月5日
Outlook 2026: Pressure Makes Diamonds
We forecast Vietnam’s real GDP to grow by 9.0% in 2026, underpinned by an ambitious government agenda aimed at positioning the year as a critical breakthrough in the country’s development trajectory. A key pillar of this strategy is the acceleration of public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects, which is expected to alleviate structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity, and crowd in private-sector participation. Beyond public investment, domestic demand is likely to remain a stable growth anchor, mainly driven by supportive fiscal policies. At the same time, we expect export performance to remain resilient, supported by Vietnam’s proven comparative advantages amid the turbulence caused by reciprocal tariffs. Taken together, these factors should drive a broad-based acceleration in economic activity across key sectors, setting a solid foundation for the opening year of the country’s so-called ‘National Rise’ era.2025年12月24日
11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.2025年12月9日
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.2025年11月6日
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.2025年10月7日
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.2025年9月8日
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.2025年8月6日
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.2025年7月7日
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.2025年6月6日
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.2025年5月6日
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.2025年4月8日
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.2025年3月6日
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.2025年2月6日
精选优惠
1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year
Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.2026年2月6日
5W26: SBV shifts to net injection
This week, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection stance after three consecutive weeks of withdrawing funds from the system. On the interbank market, rates continued to trend upward across most tenors especially at the short end as liquidity remained tight following previous net withdrawals. On the FX front, USDVND cooled significantly while the greenback lost momentum globally following the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady and news surrounding the nomination of a new Fed chair.2026年2月2日
4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal
In the fourth week of 2026, the SBV continued to withdraw liquidity from the banking system, primarily by allowing previously injected repo contracts to mature, thereby reducing outstanding balances. Specifically on the interbank market, rates increased as a result of three consecutive weeks of net liquidity withdrawal by the SBV. On the FX front, USDVND cooled further as the greenback lost momentum, driven by recent developments between the United States and its trading partners, which have intensified concerns over the outlook for the US dollar.2026年1月26日
3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal
This week, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressure in the banking system eased. On the interbank market, the interbank curve flattened, with short tenor rates edging up while longer tenors declined. Additionally with lower trading volume, this suggests that funding pressure continues to cool, with demand shifting toward shorter tenors ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways, as if it waited for further developments from the United States, including upcoming Supreme Court rulings. These outcomes are expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s independence and the extent of the Trump administration’s influence over the remainder of his term.2026年1月20日
Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?
The market's upward trend will be supported by strong improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, we believe the current uptrend will continue until February, after which the market will undergo a correction before it forms a new growth trend in the second half of 2026.2026年1月14日
2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases
This week, the SBV shifted back to net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressures in the banking system eased at the start of the year. On the interbank market, rates declined sharply across most maturities, while trading volume also dropped significantly, indicating that funding demand has cooled after the sharp tightening observed previously. On the FX front, USDVND continued to ease amid expectations of more accommodative Fed rate policies. In addition, year end remittance inflows and a consistent four-week streak of foreign net buying also contributed to the calmer exchange rate dynamics. As the economy enters a new phase with ambitious growth objectives, we expect the SBV to maintain a supportive stance to ensure smooth functioning of the banking system.2026年1月13日
12M25: The Dawn of National Rise
Vietnam’s economy recorded a strong acceleration toward year-end, underpinned by the combined strength of domestic resilience and renewed momentum in external trade. Real GDP growth remained aligned with national targets, driven primarily by a robust rebound in exports, underscoring Vietnam’s sustained competitiveness despite persistent tariff-related pressures throughout the year. At the same time, record-high FDI disbursement reaffirmed the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital. Domestically, growth was supported by solid fundamentals, as industrial production and retail sales posted encouraging gains, while household consumption and hospitality services continued to serve as key pillars of expansion despite disruptions caused by natural disasters, with inflation remaining well contained. Overall, Vietnam closed a volatile 2025 on a resilient and well-anchored macroeconomic footing, setting the stage for the next phase of national ascent and more ambitious long-term objectives.2026年1月6日
1W26: SBV maintains liquidity support ahead of the Tet holiday
In the final sessions of the year, the SBV sustained its net liquidity injection via OMO to facilitate peak credit disbursement activity across the banking system. On the interbank market, rates spiked across all tenors, primarily driven by the technical holiday effect and intense year-end funding pressure. On the FX front, USDVND remained largely flat despite a stronger US dollar globally, anchored by consistent foreign net buying.2026年1月5日
Outlook 2026: Pressure Makes Diamonds
We forecast Vietnam’s real GDP to grow by 9.0% in 2026, underpinned by an ambitious government agenda aimed at positioning the year as a critical breakthrough in the country’s development trajectory. A key pillar of this strategy is the acceleration of public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects, which is expected to alleviate structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity, and crowd in private-sector participation. Beyond public investment, domestic demand is likely to remain a stable growth anchor, mainly driven by supportive fiscal policies. At the same time, we expect export performance to remain resilient, supported by Vietnam’s proven comparative advantages amid the turbulence caused by reciprocal tariffs. Taken together, these factors should drive a broad-based acceleration in economic activity across key sectors, setting a solid foundation for the opening year of the country’s so-called ‘National Rise’ era.2025年12月24日
11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.2025年12月9日
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.2025年11月6日
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.2025年10月7日
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.2025年9月8日
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.2025年8月6日
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.2025年7月7日
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.2025年6月6日
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.2025年5月6日
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.2025年4月8日
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.2025年3月6日
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.2025年2月6日
精选新闻
1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year
Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.2026年2月6日
5W26: SBV shifts to net injection
This week, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection stance after three consecutive weeks of withdrawing funds from the system. On the interbank market, rates continued to trend upward across most tenors especially at the short end as liquidity remained tight following previous net withdrawals. On the FX front, USDVND cooled significantly while the greenback lost momentum globally following the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady and news surrounding the nomination of a new Fed chair.2026年2月2日
4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal
In the fourth week of 2026, the SBV continued to withdraw liquidity from the banking system, primarily by allowing previously injected repo contracts to mature, thereby reducing outstanding balances. Specifically on the interbank market, rates increased as a result of three consecutive weeks of net liquidity withdrawal by the SBV. On the FX front, USDVND cooled further as the greenback lost momentum, driven by recent developments between the United States and its trading partners, which have intensified concerns over the outlook for the US dollar.2026年1月26日
3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal
This week, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressure in the banking system eased. On the interbank market, the interbank curve flattened, with short tenor rates edging up while longer tenors declined. Additionally with lower trading volume, this suggests that funding pressure continues to cool, with demand shifting toward shorter tenors ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways, as if it waited for further developments from the United States, including upcoming Supreme Court rulings. These outcomes are expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s independence and the extent of the Trump administration’s influence over the remainder of his term.2026年1月20日
Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?
The market's upward trend will be supported by strong improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, we believe the current uptrend will continue until February, after which the market will undergo a correction before it forms a new growth trend in the second half of 2026.2026年1月14日
2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases
This week, the SBV shifted back to net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressures in the banking system eased at the start of the year. On the interbank market, rates declined sharply across most maturities, while trading volume also dropped significantly, indicating that funding demand has cooled after the sharp tightening observed previously. On the FX front, USDVND continued to ease amid expectations of more accommodative Fed rate policies. In addition, year end remittance inflows and a consistent four-week streak of foreign net buying also contributed to the calmer exchange rate dynamics. As the economy enters a new phase with ambitious growth objectives, we expect the SBV to maintain a supportive stance to ensure smooth functioning of the banking system.2026年1月13日
12M25: The Dawn of National Rise
Vietnam’s economy recorded a strong acceleration toward year-end, underpinned by the combined strength of domestic resilience and renewed momentum in external trade. Real GDP growth remained aligned with national targets, driven primarily by a robust rebound in exports, underscoring Vietnam’s sustained competitiveness despite persistent tariff-related pressures throughout the year. At the same time, record-high FDI disbursement reaffirmed the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital. Domestically, growth was supported by solid fundamentals, as industrial production and retail sales posted encouraging gains, while household consumption and hospitality services continued to serve as key pillars of expansion despite disruptions caused by natural disasters, with inflation remaining well contained. Overall, Vietnam closed a volatile 2025 on a resilient and well-anchored macroeconomic footing, setting the stage for the next phase of national ascent and more ambitious long-term objectives.2026年1月6日
1W26: SBV maintains liquidity support ahead of the Tet holiday
In the final sessions of the year, the SBV sustained its net liquidity injection via OMO to facilitate peak credit disbursement activity across the banking system. On the interbank market, rates spiked across all tenors, primarily driven by the technical holiday effect and intense year-end funding pressure. On the FX front, USDVND remained largely flat despite a stronger US dollar globally, anchored by consistent foreign net buying.2026年1月5日
Outlook 2026: Pressure Makes Diamonds
We forecast Vietnam’s real GDP to grow by 9.0% in 2026, underpinned by an ambitious government agenda aimed at positioning the year as a critical breakthrough in the country’s development trajectory. A key pillar of this strategy is the acceleration of public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects, which is expected to alleviate structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity, and crowd in private-sector participation. Beyond public investment, domestic demand is likely to remain a stable growth anchor, mainly driven by supportive fiscal policies. At the same time, we expect export performance to remain resilient, supported by Vietnam’s proven comparative advantages amid the turbulence caused by reciprocal tariffs. Taken together, these factors should drive a broad-based acceleration in economic activity across key sectors, setting a solid foundation for the opening year of the country’s so-called ‘National Rise’ era.2025年12月24日
11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.2025年12月9日
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.2025年11月6日
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.2025年10月7日
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.2025年9月8日
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.2025年8月6日
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.2025年7月7日
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.2025年6月6日
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.2025年5月6日
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.2025年4月8日
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.2025年3月6日
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.2025年2月6日
精选优惠
1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year
Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.2026年2月6日
5W26: SBV shifts to net injection
This week, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection stance after three consecutive weeks of withdrawing funds from the system. On the interbank market, rates continued to trend upward across most tenors especially at the short end as liquidity remained tight following previous net withdrawals. On the FX front, USDVND cooled significantly while the greenback lost momentum globally following the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady and news surrounding the nomination of a new Fed chair.2026年2月2日
4W26: SBV maintains to net withdrawal
In the fourth week of 2026, the SBV continued to withdraw liquidity from the banking system, primarily by allowing previously injected repo contracts to mature, thereby reducing outstanding balances. Specifically on the interbank market, rates increased as a result of three consecutive weeks of net liquidity withdrawal by the SBV. On the FX front, USDVND cooled further as the greenback lost momentum, driven by recent developments between the United States and its trading partners, which have intensified concerns over the outlook for the US dollar.2026年1月26日
3W26: SBV continues to net withdrawal
This week, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressure in the banking system eased. On the interbank market, the interbank curve flattened, with short tenor rates edging up while longer tenors declined. Additionally with lower trading volume, this suggests that funding pressure continues to cool, with demand shifting toward shorter tenors ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. On the FX front, USDVND remained broadly sideways, as if it waited for further developments from the United States, including upcoming Supreme Court rulings. These outcomes are expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s independence and the extent of the Trump administration’s influence over the remainder of his term.2026年1月20日
Strategic Insight: A new growth phase?
The market's upward trend will be supported by strong improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, we believe the current uptrend will continue until February, after which the market will undergo a correction before it forms a new growth trend in the second half of 2026.2026年1月14日
2W26: SBV returns to net withdrawal as demand eases
This week, the SBV shifted back to net liquidity withdrawal via OMO as liquidity pressures in the banking system eased at the start of the year. On the interbank market, rates declined sharply across most maturities, while trading volume also dropped significantly, indicating that funding demand has cooled after the sharp tightening observed previously. On the FX front, USDVND continued to ease amid expectations of more accommodative Fed rate policies. In addition, year end remittance inflows and a consistent four-week streak of foreign net buying also contributed to the calmer exchange rate dynamics. As the economy enters a new phase with ambitious growth objectives, we expect the SBV to maintain a supportive stance to ensure smooth functioning of the banking system.2026年1月13日
12M25: The Dawn of National Rise
Vietnam’s economy recorded a strong acceleration toward year-end, underpinned by the combined strength of domestic resilience and renewed momentum in external trade. Real GDP growth remained aligned with national targets, driven primarily by a robust rebound in exports, underscoring Vietnam’s sustained competitiveness despite persistent tariff-related pressures throughout the year. At the same time, record-high FDI disbursement reaffirmed the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital. Domestically, growth was supported by solid fundamentals, as industrial production and retail sales posted encouraging gains, while household consumption and hospitality services continued to serve as key pillars of expansion despite disruptions caused by natural disasters, with inflation remaining well contained. Overall, Vietnam closed a volatile 2025 on a resilient and well-anchored macroeconomic footing, setting the stage for the next phase of national ascent and more ambitious long-term objectives.2026年1月6日
1W26: SBV maintains liquidity support ahead of the Tet holiday
In the final sessions of the year, the SBV sustained its net liquidity injection via OMO to facilitate peak credit disbursement activity across the banking system. On the interbank market, rates spiked across all tenors, primarily driven by the technical holiday effect and intense year-end funding pressure. On the FX front, USDVND remained largely flat despite a stronger US dollar globally, anchored by consistent foreign net buying.2026年1月5日
Outlook 2026: Pressure Makes Diamonds
We forecast Vietnam’s real GDP to grow by 9.0% in 2026, underpinned by an ambitious government agenda aimed at positioning the year as a critical breakthrough in the country’s development trajectory. A key pillar of this strategy is the acceleration of public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects, which is expected to alleviate structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity, and crowd in private-sector participation. Beyond public investment, domestic demand is likely to remain a stable growth anchor, mainly driven by supportive fiscal policies. At the same time, we expect export performance to remain resilient, supported by Vietnam’s proven comparative advantages amid the turbulence caused by reciprocal tariffs. Taken together, these factors should drive a broad-based acceleration in economic activity across key sectors, setting a solid foundation for the opening year of the country’s so-called ‘National Rise’ era.2025年12月24日
11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.2025年12月9日
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.2025年11月6日
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.2025年10月7日
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.2025年9月8日
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.2025年8月6日
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.2025年7月7日
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.2025年6月6日
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.2025年5月6日
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.2025年4月8日
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.2025年3月6日
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.2025年2月6日