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11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.December 9, 2025
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.November 6, 2025
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.October 7, 2025
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.September 8, 2025
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.August 6, 2025
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.July 7, 2025
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.June 6, 2025
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.May 6, 2025
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.April 8, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.March 6, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.February 6, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.January 6, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.December 30, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.December 6, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.November 6, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.October 7, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.September 6, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI reportJuly 29, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.July 1, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.May 29, 2024
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11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.December 9, 2025
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.November 6, 2025
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.October 7, 2025
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.September 8, 2025
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.August 6, 2025
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.July 7, 2025
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.June 6, 2025
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.May 6, 2025
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.April 8, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.March 6, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.February 6, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.January 6, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.December 30, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.December 6, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.November 6, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.October 7, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.September 6, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI reportJuly 29, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.July 1, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.May 29, 2024
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11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.December 9, 2025
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.November 6, 2025
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.October 7, 2025
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.September 8, 2025
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.August 6, 2025
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.July 7, 2025
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.June 6, 2025
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.May 6, 2025
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.April 8, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.March 6, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.February 6, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.January 6, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.December 30, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.December 6, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.November 6, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.October 7, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.September 6, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI reportJuly 29, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.July 1, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.May 29, 2024
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11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters
Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.December 9, 2025
10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions
Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.November 6, 2025
9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect
Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.October 7, 2025
8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede
The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.September 8, 2025
7M25: Stable domestic growth amid early signs of export deceleration
Vietnam’s July economic report paints a mixed but overall encouraging picture. Export growth, particularly for sea-shipped goods, showed slowdown, and FDI inflows reflected increased investor caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. In contrast, domestic fundamentals remained solid. Industrial production re-accelerated on the back of stronger domestic orders, and household consumption continued to improve, These developments suggest that Vietnam’s near-term growth will be primarily driven by internal momentum.August 6, 2025
6M25: Growth navigates new uncertainties
Vietnam's macro picture in June presented a nuanced story. On the external front, IIP persisted, but PMI softened from fewer new orders. This divergence suggests IIP's strength was largely due to front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff actions. Domestically, retail sales slowed as the impact of preceding holidays receded, compounded by short-lived supply disruptions for smaller businesses facing origin scrutiny and updated tax requirements. Looking ahead, recent updates on the trade deal with the U.S. suggest a favorable outcome, potentially allowing Vietnamese exporters to expand their market share by effectively leveraging tariff advantages. However, as the front-loading effect fades, export growth is expected to slow. As a result, the country’s growth momentum will likely shift back to domestic demand and private sector activity.July 7, 2025
5M25: Growth holds, but storm clouds gather
Vietnam’s macro picture in May remained broadly positive, with IIP and FDI continuing to show strong performance, and inflation staying under control. However, momentum in manufacturing is softening, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pace. As the tariff decision deadline draws near, trade uncertainties are intensifying, especially with front-loaded U.S. orders tapering off and inventories already high. Both exports and imports are expected to slow, and the outcome of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and key partners will play a decisive role in shaping Vietnam’s external outlook going forward.June 6, 2025
4M25: Tariff clouds loom over solid performance
Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in April remains broadly positive, with industrial production and trade indicators continuing to perform well. However, this may represent only a calm before the storm, as early signs of an FDI slowdown and softening in industrial production momentum have emerged. Concerns are mounting that both production and exports may weaken in the coming months amid the looming implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the government’s ambitious economic targets are likely to face mounting headwinds, making domestic drivers—particularly infrastructure investment and public spending—more critical in sustaining growth. Encouragingly, inflation remains under control, offering room for additional policy support in the months ahead.May 6, 2025
3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.April 8, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.March 6, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.February 6, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.January 6, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.December 30, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.December 6, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.November 6, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.October 7, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.September 6, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI reportJuly 29, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.July 1, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.May 29, 2024